Related papers: Hurricane Simulation and Nonstationary Extremal An…
The estimation of extreme loads from waves is an essential part of the design of an offshore wind turbine. Standard design codes suggest to either use simplified methods based on regular waves, or to perform fully nonlinear computations.…
Human mobility is influenced by environmental change and natural disasters. Researchers have used trip distance distribution, radius of gyration of movements, and individuals' visited locations to understand and capture human mobility…
Dynamical downscaling with high-resolution regional climate models may offer the possibility of realistically reproducing precipitation and weather events in climate simulations. As resolutions fall to order kilometers, the use of explicit…
This study examines the decay of Hurricane Melissa (2025) as the storm crossed the mountainous terrain of Jamaica, focusing on changes in inner-core energetics. Using NOAA P-3 reconnaissance observations near the 700 hPa level, integrated…
Despite the dangers associated with tropical cyclones and their rainfall, the origins of storm moisture remains unclear. Existing studies have focused on the region 40-400 km from the cyclone center. It is known that the rainfall within…
For hot spots compressed at constant velocity, we give a hydrodynamic stability criterion that describes the expected energy behavior of non-radial hydrodynamic motion for different classes of trajectories (in $\rho R$ --- $T$ space). For a…
We develop and compare model-error representation schemes derived from data assimilation increments and nudging tendencies in multi-decadal simulations of the community atmosphere model, version 6. Each scheme applies a bias correction…
Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The…
We propose and compare methods for the analysis of extreme events in complex systems governed by PDEs that involve random parameters, in situations where we are interested in quantifying the probability that a scalar function of the…
Statistical modeling of multivariate and spatial extreme events has attracted broad attention in various areas of science. Max-stable distributions and processes are the natural class of models for this purpose, and many parametric families…
Since many environmental processes such as heat waves or precipitation are spatial in extent, it is likely that a single extreme event affects several locations and the areal modeling of extremes is therefore essential if the spatial…
This study presents a hybrid neural network model for short-term (1-6 hours ahead) surface wind speed forecasting, combining Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with observational data from ground weather stations. It relies on the MeteoNet…
We present an algorithm for finding the probabilities of rare events in nonequilibrium processes. The algorithm consists of evolving the system with a modified dynamics for which the required event occurs more frequently. By keeping track…
We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…
Stochastic motion of particles in a highly unstable potential generates a number of diverging trajectories leading to undefined statistical moments of the particle position. This makes experiments challenging and breaks down a standard…
We present an alternative approach to the forecasting of motor vehicle collision rates. We adopt an oft-used tool in mathematical finance, the Heston Stochastic Volatility model, to forecast the short-term and long-term evolution of motor…
Storm surge is a significant threat to coastal communities across the globe, responsible for loss of life and enormous property damage. Consequently, significant efforts have been expended to develop high-fidelity physics-based models for…
The zonal-mean atmospheric flow of an idealized terrestrial planet is analyzed using both numerical simulations and zonally symmetric theories, focusing largely on the limit of low planetary rotation rate. Two versions of a zonally…
This work addresses the data-driven forecasting of extreme events in the airfoil flow. These events may be seen as examples of the kind of unsteady and intermittent dynamics relevant to the flow around airfoils and wings in a variety of…
A novel model of intermittency is presented in which the dynamics of the rates of energy transfer between successive steps in the energy cascade is described by a hierarchy of stochastic differential equations. The probability distribution…