Related papers: Hurricane Simulation and Nonstationary Extremal An…
Reliable estimates of sea level return levels are crucial for coastal flooding risk assessments and for coastal flood defence design. We describe a novel method for estimating extreme sea levels that is the first to capture seasonality,…
Coastal regions in North America face major threats from storm surges caused by hurricanes and nor'easters. Traditional numerical models, while accurate, are computationally expensive, limiting their practicality for real-time predictions.…
The Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating Nearshore Waves (SWAN) coupled model is modified to include a stochastic term in the shallow water equations that represents random external forces from debris carried by surge and short-term…
One way to predict hurricane numbers would be to predict sea surface temperature, and then predict hurricane numbers as a function of the predicted sea surface temperature. For certain parametric models for sea surface temperature and the…
Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…
During hurricanes, coupled wave-circulation models are critical tools for public safety. The standard approach is to use a high fidelity circulation model coupled with a wave model which uses the most advanced source terms. As a result, the…
Driven many-particle systems with nonlinear interactions are known to often display multi-stability, i.e. depending on the respective initial condition, there may be different outcomes. Here, we study this phenomenon for traffic models,…
We investigate the predictability of extreme events in time series. The focus of this work is to understand under which circumstances large events are better predictable than smaller events. Therefore we use a simple prediction algorithm…
We study the statistics of the horizontal component of atmospheric boundary layer wind speed. Motivated by its non-stationarity, we investigate which parameters remain constant or can be regarded as being piece-wise constant and explain how…
In late June, 2021, a devastating heatwave affected the US Pacific Northwest and western Canada, breaking numerous all-time temperature records by large margins and directly causing hundreds of fatalities. The observed 2021 daily maximum…
Tropical cyclone and sea surface temperature data have been used in several studies to forecast the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. Sea surface temperature (SST) and latent heat flux (LHF) are correlated with tropical…
Predictions of thunderstorm-related hazards are needed in several sectors, including first responders, infrastructure management and aviation. To address this need, we present a deep learning model that can be adapted to different hazard…
The development of surrogate models to study uncertainties in hydrologic systems requires significant effort in the development of sampling strategies and forward model simulations. Furthermore, in applications where prediction time is…
Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…
We compare experiments and direct numerical simulations to evaluate the accuracy of the Stokes-drag model, which is used widely in studies of inertial particles in turbulence. We focus on statistics at the dissipation scale and on extreme…
Understanding the dynamics of climate extreme is important in its prediction and modeling. In this study, linear trends in percentile, threshold, absolute, and duration based temperature and precipitation extremes indicator were obtained…
A hidden Markov model is developed to simulate tropical cyclone intensity evolution dependent on the surrounding large-scale environment. The model considers three unobserved (hidden) discrete states of intensification and associates each…
Florida is particularly vulnerable to hurricanes, which frequently cause substantial economic losses. While prior studies have explored specific contributors to hurricane-induced damage, few have developed a unified framework capable of…
In power system operation, characterizing the stochastic nature of wind power is an important albeit challenging issue. It is well known that distributions of wind power forecast errors often exhibit significant variability with respect to…
It is shown that condensation and precipitation do not disturb the hydrostatic equilibrium if the local pressure sink (condensation rate expressed in pressure units) is proportional to the local pressure, with a proportionality coefficient…