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Age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) provide the most extensive record of reproductive change, but their aggregate nature obscures the individual-level behavioral mechanisms that drive fertility trends. To bridge this micro-macro divide, we…
This is a pedagogical paper on estimating the number of people that can be infected by one infectious person during an epidemic outbreak, known as the reproduction number. Knowing the number is crucial for developing policy responses. There…
This study proposes a nonhomogeneous birth--death model which captures the dynamics of a directly transmitted infectious disease. Our model accounts for an important aspect of observed epidemic data in which only symptomatic infecteds are…
In disease risk spatial analysis, many researchers especially in Indonesia are still modelling population density as the ratio of total population to administrative area extent. This model oversimplifies the problem, because it covers large…
Model averaging combines forecasts obtained from a range of models, and it often produces more accurate forecasts than a forecast from a single model. The crucial part of forecast accuracy improvement in using the model averaging lies in…
There is interest in learning about the causal effects of modern contraceptive use on empowerment outcomes. Data on this question often come from family planning (FP) programs that increase access to FP and facilitate contraceptive use…
Motherhood is the main contributor to gender gaps in the labor market. IVF is a method of assisted reproduction that can delay fertility, which results in decreased motherhood income penalty. In this research, I estimate the effects of…
Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of mortality among women worldwide. Early detection and risk assessment play a crucial role in improving survival rates. Therefore, annual or biennial mammograms are often recommended for screening…
The increasing life expectancy enhances the importance of mortality forecasting. Most developing nations, including Tanzania, forecast mortality rates using static life tables. However, these tables exaggerate death probabilities by…
Identifying the structural drivers of poverty in regional datasets is frequently hindered by small sample sizes and high multidimensional collinearity, which can result in unstable and misleading policy advice. This paper evaluates the…
Shape restrictions have played a central role in economics as both testable implications of theory and sufficient conditions for obtaining informative counterfactual predictions. In this paper we provide a general procedure for inference…
Mathematical ability is among the most important determinants of prospering in the labour market. Using multiple representative datasets with learning outcomes of over 2 million children from rural India in the age group 8 to 16 years, the…
In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a widely utilized assisted reproductive technology, yet predicting its success remains challenging due to the multifaceted interplay of clinical, demographic, and procedural factors. This study develops a…
We propose a new deterministic growth model which captures certain features of both the Gompertz and Korf laws. We investigate its main properties, with special attention to the correction factor, the relative growth rate, the inflection…
Background: Suicide remains a major public health concern worldwide, responsible for more than 700,000 deaths in 2021, accounting for approximately 1.1\% of all global deaths. While many high-income countries have reported declines in…
Education plays a pivotal role in alleviating poverty, driving economic growth, and empowering individuals, thereby significantly influencing societal and personal development. However, the persistent issue of school dropout poses a…
In recent years, much of the focus in monitoring child mortality has been on assessing changes in the under-five mortality rate (U5MR). However, as the U5MR decreases, the share of neonatal deaths (within the first month) tends to increase,…
We exploit the heterogeneous impact of the Roe v. Wade ruling by the US Supreme Court, which ruled most abortion restrictions unconstitutional. Our identifying assumption is that states which had not liberalized their abortion laws prior to…
There has long been an apparent consensus in the literature on intra-household allocation and fertility that greater paternal involvement in childcare relaxes maternal time constraints, enabling mothers to increase their labor supply or…
Our purpose is to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters of interest for controlled branching processes (CBPs) without prior knowledge of the maximum number of offspring that an individual can give birth to and without…