Related papers: Utilizing a Mathematical Model to Estimate Abortio…
In this paper, we discuss the impact of some mortality data anomalies on an internal model capturing longevity risk in the Solvency 2 framework. In particular, we are concerned with abnormal cohort effects such as those for generations 1919…
This paper deals with the problem of estimating variables in nonlinear models for the spread of disease and its application to the COVID-19 epidemic. First unconstrained methods are revisited and they are shown to correspond to the…
We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number $\mathcal{R}(t)$. We discuss the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a…
The effective reproduction number is an important descriptor of an infectious disease epidemic. In small populations, ideally we would estimate the effective reproduction number using a Markov Jump Process (MJP) model of the spread of…
We study whether disruptions to preventive care during the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic affected subsequent acute hospital use. Using the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe from eight countries, we…
Preterm labor is the leading cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality and has attracted research efforts from many scientific areas. The inter-relationship between uterine contraction and the underlying electrical activities makes uterine…
This study leverages spatial machine learning (SML) to enhance the accuracy of Proxy Means Testing (PMT) for poverty targeting in Indonesia. Conventional PMT methodologies are prone to exclusion and inclusion errors due to their inability…
Proxy variables are commonly used in causal inference when unmeasured confounding exists. While most existing proximal methods assume a unidirectional causal relationship between two primary variables, many social and biological systems…
During each ovarian cycle, only a definite number of follicles ovulate, while the others undergo a degeneration process called atresia. We have designed a multi-scale mathematical model where ovulation and atresia result from a hormonal…
Irrigation decision systems and water need models have been important research topics in agriculture since 90s. They improve the efficiency of crop yields, provide an appropriate use of water on the earth and so, prevent the water scarcity…
A growing share of the world's population is being born via assisted reproductive technology (ART), including in-vitro fertilisation (IVF). However, two concerns persist. First, ART pregnancies correlate with predictors of poor outcomes at…
The prevalence of sexual reproduction ("sex") in eukaryotes is an enigma of evolutionary biology. Sex increases genetic variation only tells its long-term superiority in essence. The accumulation of harmful mutations causes an immediate and…
This report presents a statistical analysis of the impact of key maternal characteristics, including age, smoking status, parity, height, weight, and gestation period, on newborn birth weight. A realworld dataset comprising 1,236…
The existing life table method needs to calculate the age-specific mortality first, not only has too many and complicated calculation steps, but also introduces the multiple approximation to bring error. This paper redefines the probability…
This study examines the effect of fiscal austerity measures on infant mortality in Greece. Austerity measures were initiated by the tripartite committee and implemented between 2010 and 2017 to counteract deep fiscal deficit and large…
Aggregate measures of family planning are used to monitor demand for and usage of contraceptive methods in populations globally, for example as part of the FP2030 initiative. Family planning measures for low- and middle-income countries are…
Cardiotocography (CTG) is a low-cost, non-invasive fetal health assessment technique used globally, especially in underdeveloped countries. However, it is currently mainly used to identify the fetus's current status (e.g., fetal acidosis or…
We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…
While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist, few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a country,…
The present study deals with the estimation of the mean value of fecundability by fitting a theoretical distribution from the observed month of first conception of the married women who did not use any contraceptive method before their…