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Density dependence is important in the ecology and evolution of microbial and cancer cells. Typically, we can only measure net growth rates, but the underlying density-dependent mechanisms that give rise to the observed dynamics can…
Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing…
The biggest Breast cancer is increasingly a major factor in female fatalities, overtaking heart disease. While genetic factors are important in the growth of breast cancer, new research indicates that environmental factors also play a…
Child mortality is an important population health indicator. However, many countries lack high-quality vital registration to measure child mortality rates precisely and reliably over time. Research endeavors such as those by the United…
In numerous papers, the behaviour of stochastic population models is investigated through the sign of a real quantity which is the growth rate of the population near the extinction set. In many cases, it is proven that when this growth rate…
In order to analyze the effectiveness of three successive nationwide lockdown enforced in India, we present a data-driven analysis of four key parameters, reducing the transmission rate, restraining the growth rate, flattening the epidemic…
COVID-19 pandemic has become a global issue nowadays. Various efforts have been made to break the chain of the spread of the COVID-19. Indonesia's government issued a large-scale social restrictions policy to prevent the spread of the…
Why do vaccination rates remain low even in countries where long-established immunization programs exist and vaccines are provided for free? We study this paradox in the context of India, which contributes to the world's largest pool of…
Birth and death Markov processes can model stochastic physical systems from percolation to disease spread and, in particular, wildfires. We introduce and analyze a birth-death-suppression Markov process as a model of controlled culling of…
The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…
This paper evaluates the performance of prominent machine learning (ML) algorithms in predicting Indonesia's inflation using the payment system, capital market, and macroeconomic data. We compare the forecasting performance of each ML…
This paper examines the determinants of fertility among women at different stages of their reproductive lives in Uruguay. To this end, we employ time series analysis methods based on data from 1968 to 2021 and panel data techniques based on…
Context: The usability software quality attribute aims to improve system user performance. In a previous study, we found evidence of the impact of a set of usability characteristics from the viewpoint of users in terms of efficiency,…
The bayesTFR package for R provides a set of functions to produce probabilistic projections of the total fertility rates (TFR) for all countries, and is widely used, including as part of the basis for the UN's official population…
Nowadays, there is evidence that several factors may increase the risk, for an infant, to require stabilisation or resuscitation manoeuvres at birth. However, this risk factors are not completely known, and a universally applicable model…
Breast cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths, but current programs are expensive and prone to false positives, leading to unnecessary follow-up and patient anxiety. This paper proposes a solution to automated breast cancer…
This study utilizes mathematical models to assess progress toward achieving the UNAIDS 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 targets aimed at managing and eradicating HIV/AIDS. It contrasts stochastic and deterministic models, focusing on their utility in…
Accurate estimates of the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) in a developing world context are a key barometer of the health of a nation. This paper describes new models to analyze survey data on mortality in this context. We are interested in…
In part I of this analysis, the striking similarities of the declining oil production in the North Sea, Indonesia and Mexico were used to model the future maximum possible oil production per annum in all larger countries and regions of the…
Parental origin effects play an important role in mammal development and disorder. Case-control mother-child pair genotype data can be used to detect parental origin effects and is often convenient to collect in practice. Most existing…