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We study the frontier between learnable and unlearnable hidden Markov models (HMMs). HMMs are flexible tools for clustering dependent data coming from unknown populations. The model parameters are known to be fully identifiable (up to…
Parallel tempering (PT) methods are a popular class of Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes used to sample complex high-dimensional probability distributions. They rely on a collection of $N$ interacting auxiliary chains targeting tempered…
The problem of reducing a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to one of smaller dimension that exactly reproduces the same marginals is tackled by using a system-theoretic approach. Realization theory tools are extended to HMMs by leveraging suitable…
We consider the problem of estimating the number of hidden states (the order) of a nonparametric hidden Markov model (HMM). We propose two different methods and prove their almost sure consistency without any prior assumption, be it on the…
This article proposes an efficient Bayesian inference for piecewise exponential hazard (PEH) models, which allow the effect of a covariate on the survival time to vary over time. The proposed inference methodology is based on a particle…
B-spline-based hidden Markov models employ B-splines to specify the emission distributions, offering a more flexible modelling approach to data than conventional parametric HMMs. We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, enabling the…
Bayesian inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs) can be challenging due to the presence of multimodality in the likelihood function, and consequently in the joint posterior distribution, even after correcting for label switching. The…
The Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) is a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the classical Hidden Markov Model for learning from (spatio-)temporal data. A sticky HDP-HMM has been proposed to strengthen…
Filtering and smoothing with a generalised representation of uncertainty is considered. Here, uncertainty is represented using a class of outer measures. It is shown how this representation of uncertainty can be propagated using…
We present an efficient exact algorithm for estimating state sequences from outputs (or observations) in imprecise hidden Markov models (iHMM), where both the uncertainty linking one state to the next, and that linking a state to its…
In this paper, we propose an algorithm for estimating the parameters of a time-homogeneous hidden Markov model from aggregate observations. This problem arises when only the population level counts of the number of individuals at each time…
We consider spin systems on the integer lattice graph $\mathbb{Z}^d$ with nearest-neighbor interactions. We develop a combinatorial framework for establishing that exponential decay with distance of spin correlations, specifically the…
We consider a hidden Markov model with multiple observation processes, one of which is chosen at each point in time by a policy---a deterministic function of the information state---and attempt to determine which policy minimises the…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic methods in which observations are seen as realizations of a latent Markov process with discrete states that switch over time. Moving beyond standard statistical tests, HMMs offer a statistical…
Consider a sequence (indexed by n) of Markov chains Z^n in R^d characterized by transition kernels that approximately (in n) depend only on the rescaled state n^{-1} Z^n. Subject to a smoothness condition, such a family can be closely…
The paper studies large sample asymptotic properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) for the parameter of a continuous time Markov chain, observed in white noise. Using the method of weak convergence of likelihoods due to…
We consider a linear stochastic fluid network under Markov modulation, with a focus on the probability that the joint storage level attains a value in a rare set at a given point in time. The main objective is to develop efficient…
In this work we propose a Bayesian framework for data fusion of multivariate signals which arises in imaging systems. More specifically, we consider the case where we have observed two images of the same object through two different imaging…
Let $(X_t)_{t = 0 }^{\infty}$ be an irreducible reversible discrete time Markov chain on a finite state space $\Omega $. Denote its transition matrix by $P$. To avoid periodicity issues (and thus ensuring convergence to equilibrium) one…
This paper is devoted to the convergence analysis of stochastic approximation algorithms of the form $\theta\_{n+1} = \theta\_n + \gamma\_{n+1} H\_{\theta\_n}(X\_{n+1})$ where $\{\theta\_nn, n \geq 0\}$ is a $R^d$-valued sequence,…