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We present here two irreversible Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for general discrete state systems, one of the algorithms is based on the random-scan Gibbs sampler for discrete states and the other on its improved version, the…
We aim at the construction of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) of assigned complexity (number of states of the underlying Markov chain) which best approximates, in Kullback-Leibler divergence rate, a given stationary process. We establish, under…
The aim of this paper, is to define a bivariate exponentiated generalized linear exponential distribution based on Marshall-Olkin shock model. Statistical and reliability properties of this distribution are discussed. This includes…
We derive a robust update rule for the online infinite hidden Markov model (iHMM) for when the streaming data contains outliers and the model is misspecified. Leveraging recent advances in generalised Bayesian inference, we define…
The approximation of fixed-interval smoothing distributions is a key issue in inference for general state-space hidden Markov models (HMM). This contribution establishes non-asymptotic bounds for the Forward Filtering Backward Smoothing…
Social learning strategies enable agents to infer the underlying true state of nature in a distributed manner by receiving private environmental signals and exchanging beliefs with their neighbors. Previous studies have extensively focused…
A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we show how HMMs can be extended with side-constraints and present…
This paper introduces a new parsimonious structure for mixture of autoregressive models. the weighting coefficients are determined through latent random variables, following a hidden Markov model. We propose a dynamic programming algorithm…
Markov chains arising from random iteration of functions $S_{\theta}:X\to X$, $\theta \in \Theta$, where $X$ is a Polish space and $\Theta$ is arbitrary set of indices are considerd. At $x\in X$, $\theta$ is sampled from distribution…
For a Markov semigroup $P_t$ with invariant probability measure $\mu$, a constant $\ll>0$ is called a lower bound of the ultra-exponential convergence rate of $P_t$ to $\mu$, if there exists a constant $C\in (0,\infty)$ such that $$…
This paper studies the problem of ergodicity of transition probability matrices in Markovian models, such as hidden Markov models (HMMs), and how it makes very difficult the task of learning to represent long-term context for sequential…
In this paper we study posterior consistency for different topologies on the parameters for hidden Markov models with finite state space. We first obtain weak and strong posterior consistency for the marginal density function of finitely…
This paper develops an optimal Chernoff type bound for the probabilities of large deviations of sums $\sum_{k=1}^n f (X_k)$ where $f$ is a real-valued function and $(X_k)_{k \in \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}}$ is a finite state Markov chain with an…
We consider the problem of high-dimensional filtering of state-space models (SSMs) at discrete times. This problem is particularly challenging as analytical solutions are typically not available and many numerical approximation methods can…
Herein, the Hidden Markov Model is expanded to allow for Markov chain observations. In particular, the observations are assumed to be a Markov chain whose one step transition probabilities depend upon the hidden Markov chain. An…
The technological applications of hidden Markov models have been extremely diverse and successful, including natural language processing, gesture recognition, gene sequencing, and Kalman filtering of physical measurements. HMMs are highly…
The paper studies an improved estimate for the rate of convergence for nonlinear homogeneous discrete-time Markov chains. These processes are nonlinear in terms of the distribution law. Hence, the transition kernels are dependent on the…
The well-established methodology for the estimation of hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) as hidden Markov models (HMMs) with extended state spaces is further developed to incorporate covariate influences across all aspects of the state…
Extending classical probabilistic reasoning using the quantum mechanical view of probability has been of recent interest, particularly in the development of hidden quantum Markov models (HQMMs) to model stochastic processes. However, there…
Time-homogeneous Markov chains are often used as disease progression models in studies of cost-effectiveness and optimal decision-making. Maximum likelihood estimation of these models can be challenging when data are collected at a time…