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Markov state models (MSMs) have been broadly adopted for analyzing molecular dynamics trajectories, but the approximate nature of the models that results from coarse-graining into discrete states is a long-known limitation. We show…
A hidden Markov model with trends is a hidden Markov model whose emission distributions are translated by a trend that depends on the current hidden state and on the current time. Contrary to standard hidden Markov models, such processes…
We consider Markov-switching regression models, i.e. models for time series regression analyses where the functional relationship between covariates and response is subject to regime switching controlled by an unobservable Markov chain.…
We consider Hidden Markov Models that emit sequences of observations that are drawn from continuous distributions. For example, such a model may emit a sequence of numbers, each of which is drawn from a uniform distribution, but the support…
De-interleaving of the mixtures of Hidden Markov Processes (HMPs) generally depends on its representation model. Existing representation models consider Markov chain mixtures rather than hidden Markov, resulting in the lack of robustness to…
We describe a Markov latent state space (MLSS) model, where the latent state distribution is a decaying mixture over multiple past states. We present a simple sampling algorithm that allows to approximate such high-order MLSS with fixed…
Filtering is concerned with the sequential estimation of the state, and uncertainties, of a Markovian system, given noisy observations. It is particularly difficult to achieve accurate filtering in complex dynamical systems, such as those…
Filtering---estimating the state of a partially observable Markov process from a sequence of observations---is one of the most widely studied problems in control theory, AI, and computational statistics. Exact computation of the posterior…
This thesis studies high-dimensional, continuous-valued pairwise Markov Random Fields. We are particularly interested in approximating pairwise densities whose logarithm belongs to a Sobolev space. For this problem we propose the method of…
The theory of ``Markov-up'' processes is being developed. This is a new class of stochastic processes with ``partial'' markovian features; it could also be called ``one-sided Markov''. Such a behavior may be found in the real world and in…
This paper presents a mathematical framework for causal nonlinear prediction in settings where observations are generated from an underlying hidden Markov model (HMM). Both the problem formulation and the proposed solution are motivated by…
As deep neural networks continue to revolutionize various application domains, there is increasing interest in making these powerful models more understandable and interpretable, and narrowing down the causes of good and bad predictions. We…
Let $\pi$ denote the intractable posterior density that results when the likelihood from a multivariate linear regression model with errors from a scale mixture of normals is combined with the standard non-informative prior. There is a…
Finite state space hidden Markov models are flexible tools to model phenomena with complex time dependencies: any process distribution can be approximated by a hidden Markov model with enough hidden states.We consider the problem of…
We propose an extension of Markov-switching generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (MS-GAMLSS) that allows covariates to influence not only the parameters of the state-dependent distributions but also the state…
We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence of exponential integrals of Markov additive processes. Other than in the classical L\'evy case studied by Erickson and Maller we have to distinguish between almost sure…
We consider a discrete time hidden Markov model where the signal is a stationary Markov chain. When conditioned on the observations, the signal is a Markov chain in a random environment under the conditional measure. It is shown that this…
Studying the subexponential convergence towards equilibrium of a strong Markov process, we exhibit an intermediate Lyapunov condition equivalent to the control of some moment of a hitting time. This provides a link, similar (although more…
In this letter we borrow from the inference techniques developed for unbounded state-cardinality (nonparametric) variants of the HMM and use them to develop a tuning-parameter free, black-box inference procedure for Explicit-state-duration…
We consider hidden Markov models indexed by a binary tree where the hidden state space is a general metric space. We study the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the model parameters based only on the observed variables. In both…