Related papers: Optimizing Expected Shortfall under an $\ell_1$ co…
Consider the use of $\ell_{1}/\ell_{\infty}$-regularized regression for joint estimation of a $\pdim \times \numreg$ matrix of regression coefficients. We analyze the high-dimensional scaling of $\ell_1/\ell_\infty$-regularized quadratic…
We study a non-concave optimization problem in which a financial company maximizes the expected utility of the surplus under a risk-based regulatory constraint. For this problem, we consider four different prevalent risk constraints…
This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic economic model predictive control (SEMPC) that minimizes average economic cost while satisfying an empirical expected shortfall (EES) constraint to manage risk. A new scenario-based problem…
Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is a widely used iterative algorithm for computing (local) maximum likelihood estimate (MLE). It can be used in an extensive range of problems, including the clustering of data based on the Gaussian…
In financial risk management, Value at Risk (VaR) is widely used to estimate potential portfolio losses. VaR's limitation is its inability to account for the magnitude of losses beyond a certain threshold. Expected Shortfall (ES) addresses…
Measuring the contribution of a bank or an insurance company to overall systemic risk is a key concern, particularly in the aftermath of the 2007--2009 financial crisis and the 2020 downturn. In this paper, we derive worst-case and…
The problem of estimation error of Expected Shortfall is analyzed, with a view of its introduction as a global regulatory risk measure.
In the recent Basel Accords, the Expected Shortfall (ES) replaces the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the standard risk measure for market risk in the banking sector, making it the most important risk measure in financial regulation. One of the most…
We propose a new approach, termed Realized Risk Measures (RRM), to estimate Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) using high-frequency financial data. It extends the Realized Quantile (RQ) approach proposed by Dimitriadis and…
We address the problem that classical risk measures may not detect the tail risk adequately. This can occur for instance due to averaging when calculating the Expected Shortfall. The current literature proposes the so-called adjusted…
The goal of regression and classification methods in supervised learning is to minimize the empirical risk, that is, the expectation of some loss function quantifying the prediction error under the empirical distribution. When facing scarce…
In this paper we propose a multivariate quantile regression framework to forecast Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of multiple financial assets simultaneously, extending Taylor (2019). We generalize the Multivariate…
In this paper, we propose $\ell_p$-norm regularized models to seek near-optimal sparse portfolios. These sparse solutions reduce the complexity of portfolio implementation and management. Theoretical results are established to guarantee the…
Marginal expected shortfall is unquestionably one of the most popular systemic risk measures. Studying its extreme behaviour is particularly relevant for risk protection against severe global financial market downturns. In this context,…
The growing amount of fluctuating renewable infeeds and market liberalization increases uncertainty in power system operation. To capture the influence of fluctuations in operational planning, we model the forecast errors of the uncertain…
Regularizing neural networks is important for anticipating model behavior in regions of the data space that are not well represented. In this work, we propose a regularization technique for enforcing a level of smoothness in the mapping…
This paper investigates robust versions of the general empirical risk minimization algorithm, one of the core techniques underlying modern statistical methods. Success of the empirical risk minimization is based on the fact that for a…
Value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are two commonly utilized metrics for quantifying financial risk. In this study, we review the widely employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. These…
We address the problem of estimating the expected shortfall risk of a financial loss using a finite number of i.i.d. data. It is well known that the classical plug-in estimator suffers from poor statistical performance when faced with…
We propose a new backtesting framework for Expected Shortfall that could be used by the regulator. Instead of looking at the estimated capital reserve and the realised cash-flow separately, one could bind them into the secured position, for…