Related papers: From viral evolution to spatial contagion: a biolo…
In this work, we introduce a quantum-inspired epidemic model to study the dynamics of an infectious disease in a population divided into compartments. By treating the healthy population as a large reservoir, we construct a framework based…
Unraveling the evolutionary forces shaping bacterial diversity can today be tackled using a growing amount of genomic data. While the genome of eukaryotes is highly stable, bacterial genomes from cells of the same species highly vary in…
Insect-borne diseases are diseases carried by insects affecting humans, animals or plants. They have the potential to generate massive outbreaks such as the Zika epidemic in 2015-2016 mostly distributed in the Americas, the Pacific and…
Infectious diseases remain one of the major causes of human mortality and suffering. Mathematical models have been established as an important tool for capturing the features that drive the spread of the disease, predicting the progression…
Characterizing the spatial extent of epidemics at the outbreak stage is key to controlling the evolution of the disease. At the outbreak, the number of infected individuals is typically small, so that fluctuations around their average are…
To manage the COVID-19 epidemic effectively, decision-makers in public health need accurate forecasts of case numbers. A potential near real-time predictor of future case numbers is human mobility; however, research on the predictive power…
This study presents a neural network-enhanced approach to modeling disease spread dynamics over time and space. Neural networks are used to estimate time-varying parameters, with two calibration methods explored: Approximate Bayesian…
Emerging marine infectious diseases pose a substantial threat to marine ecosystems and the conservation of their biodiversity. Compartmental models of epidemic transmission in marine sessile organisms, available only recently, are based on…
Human mobility forms the backbone of contact patterns through which infectious diseases propagate, fundamentally shaping the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics and pandemics. While traditional models are often based on the assumption…
For a two-dimensional system of agents modeled by molecular dynamics, we simulate epidemics spreading, which was recently studied on complex networks. Our resulting network model is time-evolving. We study the transitions to spreading as…
The Ebola epidemic in West Africa is the largest ever recorded, with over 27,000 cases and 11,000 deaths as of June 2015. The public health response was challenged by difficulties with disease surveillance, which impacted subsequent…
Infectious disease transmission in human populations has a complex two-way interaction with changes in host behaviour. It is increasingly recognised that incorporating adaptive behavioural change into epidemic models is important for…
A deterministic pathogen transmission model based on high-fidelity physics has been developed. The model combines computational fluid dynamics and computational crowd dynamics in order to be able to provide accurate tracing of viral matter…
We present a methodology providing a one-directional link from within-host individual heterogeneity to population-level disease transmission dynamics. The methodology works in several steps. A within-host model is investigated numerically…
The social contagion literature makes a distinction between simple (independent cascade or bond percolation processes that pass infections through edges) and complex contagions (bootstrap percolation or threshold processes that require…
The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic has made apparent the need for decision support based upon accurate epidemic modeling. This process is substantially hampered by under-reporting of cases and related data incompleteness issues. In…
Bacteria and their bacteriophages are the most abundant, widespread and diverse groups of biological entities on the planet. In an attempt to understand how the interactions between bacteria, virulent phages and temperate phages might…
Understanding the spread of COVID-19 has been the subject of numerous studies, highlighting the significance of reliable epidemic models. Here, we introduce a novel epidemic model using a latent Hawkes process with temporal covariates for…
We have further extended our compartmental model describing the spread of the infection in Italy. The model is based on the assumption that the time evolution of all of the observable quantities (number of people still positive to the…
Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements,…