Related papers: From viral evolution to spatial contagion: a biolo…
We propose a novel probabilistic framework to model continuous-time interaction events data. Our goal is to infer the \emph{implicit} community structure underlying the temporal interactions among entities, and also to exploit how the…
Epidemic spreading of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and has often considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and demands for a…
Information and epidemic propagation dynamics in complex networks is truly important to discover and control terrorist attack and disease spread. How to track, recognize and model such dynamics is a big challenge. With the popularity of…
Despite the advanced stage of epidemic modeling, there is a major demand for methods to incorporate behavioral responses to the spread of a disease such as social distancing and adoption of prevention methods. Mobility plays an important…
The analysis of contagion-diffusion processes in metapopulations is a powerful theoretical tool to study how mobility influences the spread of communicable diseases. Nevertheless, many metapopulation approaches use indistinguishable agents…
Branching processes are widely used to model the viral epidemic evolution. For more adequate investigation of viral epidemic modelling, we suggest to apply branching processes with transport of particles usually called branching random…
Ebola virus is one of the most virulent pathogens for humans. We present a mathematical description of different Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models. By using mathematical modeling and analysis, the latest major outbreak…
Albeit epidemic models have evolved into powerful predictive tools for the spread of diseases and opinions, most assume memoryless agents and independent transmission channels. We develop an infection mechanism that is endowed with memory…
This research presents an advanced fractional-order compartmental model designed to delve into the complexities of COVID-19 transmission dynamics, specifically accounting for the influence of environmental pathogens on disease spread. By…
We study a model for the spread of an infectious disease which incorporates spatial and temporal effects. The model is a delayed multi-type branching process in which types represent geographic regions while infected individuals reproduce…
Estimating population-level prevalence and transmission dynamics of wildlife pathogens can be challenging, partly because surveillance data is sparse, detection-driven, and unevenly sequenced. Using highly pathogenic avian influenza A/H5…
We develop a mathematical framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic model of wealth exchange. The multi-agent description leads to study the evolution over time of a…
Mathematical disease modelling has long operated under the assumption that any one infectious disease is caused by one transmissible pathogen spreading among a population. This paradigm has been useful in simplifying the biological reality…
In this work, a hepatitis B virus infection dynamics model is proposed including the spatial dependence of viruses. The existence of traveling waves for the proposed model is established through the application of the celebrated Gersgorin…
Epidemic spreading is well understood when a disease propagates around a contact graph. In a stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible setting, spectral conditions characterise whether the disease vanishes. However, modelling human…
Over the past two decades there has been a number of global outbreaks of viral diseases. This has accelerated the efforts to model and forecast the disease spreading, in order to find ways to confine the spreading regionally and between…
We study the impact of contact heterogeneity on epidemic dynamics. A system characterized by multiple susceptible populations is considered. The description of the spread of an infectious disease is obtained through the study of a system of…
Host mobility plays a fundamental role in the spatial spread of infectious diseases. Previous theoretical works based on the integration of network theory into the metapopulation framework have shown that the heterogeneities that…
The purpose of this study is to leverage modern technology (such as mobile or web apps in Beckman et al. (2014)) to enrich epidemiology data and infer the transmission of disease. Homogeneity related research on population level has been…
A central feature of an emerging infectious disease in a pandemic scenario is the spread through geographical scales and the impacts on different locations according to the adopted mitigation protocols. We investigated a stochastic epidemic…