Related papers: The Climate Extended Risk Model (CERM)
Understanding how policy language evolves over time is critical for assessing global responses to complex challenges such as climate change. Temporal analysis helps stakeholders, including policymakers and researchers, to evaluate past…
Systemic risk is a rapidly developing area of research. Classical financial models often do not adequately reflect the phenomena of bubbles, crises, and transitions between them during credit cycles. To study very improbable events,…
In this paper, we performs a credit risk analysis, on the data of past loan applicants of a company named Lending Club. The calculation required the use of exploratory data analysis and machine learning classification algorithms, namely,…
Integrated assessment models have become the primary tools for comparing climate policies that seek to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Policy comparisons have often been performed by considering a planner who seeks to make optimal…
We study the implications of model uncertainty in a climate-economics framework with three types of capital: "dirty" capital that produces carbon emissions when used for production, "clean" capital that generates no emissions but is…
The proposed model is aimed to reveal important patterns in the behavior of a simplified financial system. The patterns could be detected as regular cycles consisting of debt bubbles and crises. Financial cycles have a well defined…
Accurate projections of wind energy potential under climate change are critical for effective long-term energy planning. While previous studies have highlighted the value of multi-model ensembles, they often fall short in capturing the full…
In this paper, we are interested in evaluating the resilience of financial portfolios under extreme economic conditions. Therefore, we use empirical measures to characterize the transmission process of macroeconomic shocks to risk…
Economic assessment in environmental science concerns the measurement or valuation of environmental impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Integrated assessment modeling is a unifying framework of environmental economics, which attempts to…
It is important for policymakers to understand which financial policies are effective in increasing climate risk disclosure in corporate reporting. We use machine learning to automatically identify disclosures of five different types of…
Projecting climate change is a generalization problem: we extrapolate the recent past using physical models across past, present, and future climates. Current climate models require representations of processes that occur at scales smaller…
Spread regression is an extension of linear regression that allows for the inclusion of a predictor that contains information about the variance. It can be used to take the information from a weather forecast ensemble and produce a…
On the way towards carbon neutrality, climate stress testing provides estimates for the physical and transition risks that climate change poses to the economy and the financial system. Missing firm-level CO2 emissions data severely impedes…
This brief paper summarize the chances offered by the Peak-Over-Threshold method, related with analysis of extremes. Identification of appropriate Value at Risk can be solved by fitting data with a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Also an…
Modeling weather and climate is an essential endeavor to understand the near- and long-term impacts of climate change, as well as inform technology and policymaking for adaptation and mitigation efforts. In recent years, there has been a…
This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset…
Quantifying uncertainty in weather forecasts is critical, especially for predicting extreme weather events. This is typically accomplished with ensemble prediction systems, which consist of many perturbed numerical weather simulations, or…
This work is attached to the BRICS 2013 competition. We propose a two-stage model for dealing with the temporal degradation of credit scoring models. This methodology produced motivating results in a 1-year horizon. We anticipate that it…
Understanding the earth's climate system and how it might be changing is a preeminent scientific challenge. Global climate models are used to simulate past, present, and future climates, and experiments are executed continuously on an array…
The rapid expansion of cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) has created significant opportunities for small- and medium-sized sellers, yet financing remains a critical challenge due to their limited credit histories. Third-party logistics…