Related papers: The Climate Extended Risk Model (CERM)
Long-term load forecasting plays a vital role for utilities and planners in terms of grid development and expansion planning. An overestimate of long-term electricity load will result in substantial wasted investment in the construction of…
We explore the crucial interplay between climate change and power system planning, highlighting the urgent need to systematically integrate climate information into energy system studies. Climate change impacts the energy sector on multiple…
Climate physical risks pose an increasing threat to urban infrastructure, necessitating urgent climate adaptation measures to protect lives and assets. Implementing such measures, including the development of resilient infrastructure and…
This paper introduces a novel stochastic model for credit spreads. The stochastic approach leverages the diffusion of default intensities via a CIR++ model and is formulated within a risk-neutral probability space. Our research primarily…
In order to explore whether environmental liability insurance has an important impact on industrial emission reduction, this paper selects provincial (city) level panel data from 2010 to 2020 and constructs a two-way fixed effect model to…
The resilience of electric power grids is threatened by natural hazards. Climate-related hazards are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Statistical analyses clearly demonstrate a rise in the number of incidents (power…
Climate change impacts a broad spectrum of human resources and activities, necessitating the use of climate models to project long-term effects and inform mitigation and adaptation strategies. These models generate multiple datasets by…
The frequency of disruptive and newly emerging threats (e.g. man-made attacks--cyber and physical attacks; extreme natural events--hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods) has escalated dramatically in the last decade. Impacts of these events…
Simultaneous concurrence of extreme values across multiple climate variables can result in large societal and environmental impacts. Therefore, there is growing interest in understanding these concurrent extremes. In many applications, not…
Regional climate models (RCMs) are essential tools for simulating and studying regional climate variability and change. However, their high computational cost limits the production of comprehensive ensembles of regional climate projections…
Ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary tools for investigating climate sensitivity, projecting future climate states, and quantifying uncertainty. GCM ensembles are subject to substantial uncertainty due to model…
Firms should keep capital to offer sufficient protection against the risks they are facing. In the insurance context methods have been developed to determine the minimum capital level required, but less so in the context of firms with…
Determining contributions by sub-portfolios or single exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital for credit risk is an important risk measurement task. Often economic capital is measured as Value-at-Risk (VaR) of the portfolio loss…
This paper suggests parametrically transformed nested error regression models (TNERM), which transform the data flexibly to follow the normal linear mixed regression. We provide a procedure for estimating consistently the parameters of the…
According to a recent investigation, an estimated 33-50% of the world's coral reefs have undergone degradation, believed to be as a result of climate change. A strong driver of climate change and the subsequent environmental impact are…
Climate change is widely expected to increase weather related damage and the insurance claims that result from it. This will increase insurance premiums, in a way that is independent of a customer's contribution to the causes of climate…
The property of extended longitudinal scaling of rapidity distributions was noticed recently over a broad range of beam energies. It is shown here that this property is consistent with predictions of the statistical thermal model up to the…
We introduce a new approach to a linear-circular regression problem that relates multiple linear predictors to a circular response. We follow a modeling approach of a wrapped normal distribution that describes angular variables and angular…
Climate change and global warming have been trending topics worldwide since the Eco-92 conference. However, little progress has been made in reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs). The problems and challenges related to emissions are complex and…
The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network…