Related papers: The Climate Extended Risk Model (CERM)

Assessments of impacts of climate change and future projections over the Indian region, have so far relied on a single regional climate model (RCM) - eg., the PRECIS RCM of the Hadley Centre, UK. While these assessments have provided inputs…

Adaptation-relevant predictions of climate change are often derived by combining climate model simulations in a multi-model ensemble. Model evaluation methods used in performance-based ensemble weighting schemes have limitations in the…

Accounting for climate-related risks is an emerging problem for life insurers around the world. In this paper, we demonstrate how scenario trajectories for global temperature can be obtained using the cost-benefit Dynamic Integrated…

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding the impact of human actions on Earth's climate. One key application of these models is studying extreme weather events, such as heat waves or dry spells, which have…

A large database of published model results is used to estimate the distribution of the social cost of carbon as a function of the underlying assumptions. The literature on the social cost of carbon deviates in its assumptions from the…

This thesis evaluates most of the extreme mixture models and methods that have appended in the literature and implements them in the context of finance and insurance. The paper also reviews and studies extreme value theory, time series,…

Empirical risk minimization can lead to poor generalization behavior on unseen environments if the learned model does not capture invariant feature representations. Invariant risk minimization (IRM) is a recent proposal for discovering…

Climate models, such as Earth system models (ESMs), are crucial for simulating future climate change based on projected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. While ESMs are sophisticated and invaluable,…

Demands on the disaster response capacity of the European Union are likely to increase, as the impacts of disasters continue to grow both in size and frequency. This has resulted in intensive research on issues concerning spatially-explicit…

Since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), the use of stress tests as a tool for assessing the resilience of financial institutions to adverse financial and economic developments has increased significantly. One key part in such exercises is…

This paper introduces yet another stochastic model replicating chain-ladder estimates and furthermore considers extensions that add flexibility to the modeling. In its simplest form, the proposed model replicates the chain-ladder's…

The proliferation of intermittent distributed renewable energy sources (RES) in modern power systems has fundamentally compromised the reliability and accuracy of deterministic net load forecasting. Generative models, particularly diffusion…

Large Language Models (LLM), which have developed in recent years, enable credit risk assessment through the analysis of financial texts such as analyst reports and corporate disclosures. This paper presents the first systematic review and…

Systemic risk measures have been shown to be predictive of financial crises and declines in real activity. Thus, forecasting them is of major importance in finance and economics. In this paper, we propose a new forecasting method for…

Earth System Models (ESM) are important tools that allow us to understand and quantify the physical, chemical & biological mechanisms governing the rates of change of elements of the Earth System, comprising of the atmosphere, ocean, land,…

Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and…

Credit risk stress testing has become an important risk management device which is used both by banks internally and by regulators. Stress testing is complex because it essentially means projecting a bank's full balance sheet conditional on…

This paper considers a variant of the classical Cram\'er-Lundberg model that is particularly appropriate in the credit context, with the distinguishing feature that it corresponds to a finite number of obligors. The focus is on computing…

Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…

The main idea of this paper is to use the notion of buffered failure probability from probabilistic structural design, to introduce buffered environmental contours. Classical environmental contours are used in structural design in order to…