Related papers: Modeling Macroeconomic Variations After COVID-19
There are numerous geo-climatic and human factors that contribute to the occurrence of natural disasters in the real-world scenario. Besides the study of causes and preconditions of such calamities, post-disaster analysis is essential for…
This paper empirically assesses predictions of Goodwin's model of cyclical growth regarding demand and distributive regimes when integrating the real and financial sectors. In addition, it evaluates how financial and employment shocks…
In this article we mainly extend the deterministic model developed in [10] to a stochastic setting. More precisely, we incorporated randomness in some coefficients by assuming that they follow a prescribed stochastic dynamics. In this way,…
The outbreaks of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have impacted the world significantly. Modeling the trend of infection and real-time forecasting of cases can help decision making and control of the disease spread. However, data-driven…
After COVID-19 was first reported in China at the end of 2019, it took only a few months for this local crisis to turn into a global pandemic with unprecedented disruptions of everyday life. However, at any moment in time the situation in…
How can we learn a dynamical system to make forecasts, when some variables are unobserved? For instance, in COVID-19, we want to forecast the number of infected and death cases but we do not know the count of susceptible and exposed people.…
Comparing how different populations have suffered under COVID-19 is a core part of ongoing investigations into how public policy and social inequalities influence the number of and severity of COVID-19 cases. But COVID-19 incidence can vary…
We present an econometric framework that adapts tools for scenario analysis, such as variants of conditional forecasts and generalized impulse responses, for use with dynamic nonparametric models. The proposed algorithms are based on…
Energy efficiency gains in production and consumption are undisputed economic and environmental goals. However, potential energy savings derived from efficiency innovations may have short-lasting effects due to increased demand for more…
The correct evaluation of the reproductive number $R$ for COVID-19 -- which characterizes the average number of secondary cases generated by each typical primary case -- is central in the quantification of the potential scope of the…
The evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic has been accompanied by accumulating evidence on the underlying epidemiological parameters. Hence there is potential for models providing mid-term forecasts of the epidemic trajectory using such…
COVID 19 is a disease that has abnormal over 170 nations worldwide. The number of infected people (either sick or dead) has been growing at a worrying ratio in virtually all the affected countries. Forecasting procedures can be instructed…
Understanding how efforts to limit exposure to COVID-19 have altered electricity demand provides insights not only into how dramatic restrictions shape electricity demand but also about future electricity use in a post-COVID-19 world. We…
During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models of epidemic spreading have emerged as powerful tools to produce valuable predictions of the evolution of the pandemic, helping public health authorities decide which intervention…
We develop a procedure for forecasting the volatility of a time series immediately following a news shock. Adapting the similarity-based framework of Lin and Eck (2020), we exploit series that have experienced similar shocks. We aggregate…
This paper examines the dynamic relationship between electoral polls and indicators of economic and financial uncertainty during the last two U.S. presidential elections (2020 and 2024). Using daily polling data on Donald Trump and measures…
The coronavirus disease, also known as the COVID-19, is an ongoing pandemic of a severe acute respiratory syndrome. The pandemic has led to the cancellation of many religious, political, and cultural events around the world. A huge number…
COVID-19, a novel coronavirus, is currently a major worldwide threat. It has infected more than a million people globally leading to hundred-thousands of deaths. In such grave circumstances, it is very important to predict the future…
Societal responses to environmental change vary widely, even under comparable shocks, reflecting differences in both policy measures and public reactions shaped by cultural and socioeconomic contexts. We examine mask-wearing dynamics across…
40 days after the start of the international monitoring of COVID-19, we search for the effect of official announcements regarding new cases of infection and death ratio on the financial markets volatility index (VIX). Whereas the new cases…