English

A stochastic $\theta$-SEIHRD model: adding randomness to the COVID-19 spread

Numerical Analysis 2020-10-30 v1 Numerical Analysis

Abstract

In this article we mainly extend the deterministic model developed in [10] to a stochastic setting. More precisely, we incorporated randomness in some coefficients by assuming that they follow a prescribed stochastic dynamics. In this way, the model variables are now represented by stochastic process, that can be simulated by appropriately solve the system of stochastic differential equations. Thus, the model becomes more complete and flexible than the deterministic analogous, as it incorporates additional uncertainties which are present in more realistic situations. In particular, confidence intervals for the main variables and worst case scenarios can be computed.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2010.15504,
  title  = {A stochastic $\theta$-SEIHRD model: adding randomness to the COVID-19 spread},
  author = {Álvaro Leitao and Carlos Vázquez},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2010.15504},
  year   = {2020}
}

Comments

19 pages

R2 v1 2026-06-23T19:44:29.300Z