Related papers: Modeling Macroeconomic Variations After COVID-19

We present macroeconomic model that describes evolution of macroeconomic variables and macroeconomic waves on economic space. Risk ratings of economic agents play role of their coordinates on economic space. Aggregation of economic…

We provide an overview of the methods that can be used for prediction under uncertainty and data fitting of dynamical systems, and of the fundamental challenges that arise in this context. The focus is on SIR-like models, that are being…

The generalized logistic equation is used to interpret the COVID-19 epidemic data in several countries: Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy, Turkey and South Korea. The model coefficients are calculated: the growth rate and the…

Compartmental models are widely adopted to describe and predict the spreading of infectious diseases. The unknown parameters of such models need to be estimated from the data. Furthermore, when some of the model variables are not…

This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, the SIRD model, to allow for time-varying parameters for real-time measurement and prediction of the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured…

Purpose: In the context of a COVID pandemic in 2020-21, this paper attempts to capture the interconnectedness and volatility transmission dynamics. The nature of change in volatility spillover effects and time-varying conditional…

We estimate the short-run effects of weather-related disasters on local economic activity and cross-border spillovers that operate through economic linkages between U.S. states. To this end, we use emergency declarations triggered by…

To better predict the dynamics of epidemics such as COVID-19, it is important not only to investigate the network of local and long-range contagious contacts but also to understand the temporal dynamics of infectiousness and detectable…

The choices that researchers make while conducting a statistical analysis usually have a notable impact on the results. This fact has become evident in the ongoing research of the association between the environment and the evolution of the…

This paper deals with the problem of estimating variables in nonlinear models for the spread of disease and its application to the COVID-19 epidemic. First unconstrained methods are revisited and they are shown to correspond to the…

COVID-19 is a new pandemic disease that is affecting almost every country with a negative impact on social life and economic activities. The number of infected and deceased patients continues to increase globally. Mathematical models can…

The primary goal of this research is to investigate the impact of delay on the dynamics of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Death and Susceptible (SEIRDS) model, to which we add a stochastic term to account for uncertainty in…

The coronavirus Covid-19 mutates quickly in the pandemic, leaves people struggling to verify and improve the effectiveness of the vaccine based on biochemistry. Is there any physical invariant in the variants of such kind of pathogen that…

After the introduction of drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments have adopted a strategy based on a periodic relaxation of such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis…

The potential tradeoff between health outcomes and economic impact has been a major challenge in the policy making process during the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemic-economic models designed to address this issue are either too aggregate to…

The purpose of this study is to analyse COVID-19 related news published across different geographical places, in order to gain insights in reporting differences. The COVID-19 pandemic had a major outbreak in January 2020 and was followed by…

The COVID-19 pandemic has magnified an already existing trend of people looking for healthcare solutions online. One class of solutions are symptom checkers, which have become very popular in the context of COVID-19. Traditional symptom…

The current COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have highlighted the close and delicate relationship between a country's public health and economic health. Macroeconomic models that use preexisting epidemic models to calculate the…

We analyze mathematical models for COVID-19 with discrete time delays and vaccination. Sufficient conditions for the local stability of the endemic and disease-free equilibrium points are proved for any positive time delay. The stability…

While many efforts are currently devoted to vaccines development and administration, social distancing measures, including severe restrictions such as lockdowns, remain fundamental tools to contain the spread of COVID-19. A crucial point…