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The use of the spotless days to predict the future solar activity is here revised based on the new version of the sunspot number index with a 24-month filter. Data from Solar Cycle (SC) 10 are considered because from this solar cycle the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-11-15 V. M. S. Carrasco , J. M. Vaquero , M. C. Gallego

Here we study the prediction of even and odd numbered sunspot cycles separately, thereby taking into account the Hale cyclicity of solar magnetism. We first show that the temporal evolution and shape of all sunspot cycles are extremely well…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-09-11 Timo Asikainen , Jani Mantere

Sunspot activity is highly variable and challenging to forecast. Yet forecasts are important, since peak activity has profound effects on major geophysical phenomena including space weather (satellite drag, telecommunications outages) and…

Astrophysics · Physics 2011-02-11 A. Kilcik , C. N. K. Anderson , J. P. Rozelot , H. Ye , G. Sugihara , A. Ozguc

We analysed the combined data of sunspot groups from Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during 1977-2017 and determined the monthly mean, annual mean, and 13-month…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-05-07 J. Javaraiah

Human living environment is influenced by intense solar activity. The solar activity exhibits periodicity and regularity. Although many deep-learning models are currently used for solar cycle prediction, most of them are based on a…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-03-04 Cui Zhao , Kun Liu , Shangbin Yang , Jinchao Xia , Jingxia Chen , Jie Ren , Shiyuan Liu , Fangyuan He

We investigate solar activity by focusing on double maxima in solar cycles and try to estimate the shape of the current solar cycle (Cycle 24) during its maximum. We analyzed data for Solar Cycle 24 by using Learmonth Solar Observatory…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2013-09-04 Ali Kilcik , Atila Ozguc

The prediction of the strength of future solar cycles is of interest because of its practical significance for space weather and as a test of our theoretical understanding of the solar cycle. The Babcock-Leighton mechanism allows…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-08-29 Jie Jiang , Jing-Xiu Wang , Qi-Rong Jiao , Jin-Bin Cao

The parameter G, which is determined from the general number of sunspots groups Ng according to the daily observations G=Sum(1/Ng)^2, is offered. This parameter is calculated for the days when there is at least one sunspots group. It…

Astrophysics · Physics 2007-06-13 A. G. Tlatov

The Sun exhibits a well-observed modulation in the number of spots on its disk over a period of about 11 years. From the dawn of modern observational astronomy sunspots have presented a challenge to understanding -- their quasi-periodic…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-12-09 Scott W. McIntosh , Sandra C. Chapman , Robert J. Leamon , Ricky Egeland , Nicholas W. Watkins

The forthcoming solar cycle (SC) 25 was beleived to be rather low when using the sunspot number (SN) as a measurement of the level of activity. The most popular prediction was made by the panel of NASA in 2019, including works based on…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-05-19 S. Koutchmy , B. Filippov , E. Tavabi , J-C. Noens , O. Wurmser

Using neural networks as a prediction method, we attempt to demonstrate that forecasting of the Sun's sunspot time series can be extended to the spatial-temporal case. We employ this machine learning methodology to forecast not only in time…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-03-08 Eurico Covas , Nuno Peixinho , Joao Fernandes

Forecasting the strength of the sunspot cycle is highly important for many space weather applications. Our previous studies have shown the importance of sunspot number variability in the declining phase of the current 11-year sunspot cycle…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-12-18 Tatiana Podladchikova , Ronald Van der Linden , Astrid M. Veronig

A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach combines a Fokker--Planck description of short--timescale (daily) fluctuations in sunspot number (\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \apj{} \textbf{732}, 5) with…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-03 Patrick L. Noble , Michael S. Wheatland

The maximum of a solar cycle contain two or more peaks, known as Gnevyshev peaks. Studies of this property of solar cycles may help for better understanding the solar dynamo mechanism. We analysed the 13-month smoothed monthly mean…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-02-27 J. Javaraiah

Reliable prediction of the solar cycle is a formidable challenge, yet it is increasingly vital in our technology-dependent society as solar activity drives space weather. Various methods, including precursors, nonlinear curve fitting and…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-04-20 Bidya Binay Karak

The dynamic activity of the Sun -- sustained by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in its interior -- modulates the electromagnetic, particulate and radiative environment in space. While solar activity variations on short…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-03-31 Dibyendu Nandy

We apply a complex network approach to analyse the time series of five solar parameters, and propose an strategy to predict the number of sunspots for the next solar maximum, and when will this maximum will occur. The approach is based on…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-12-18 Eduardo Flandez , Victor Munoz

We propose a simple method for prediction of the 11-year solar cycle maximum that is based on two relations. One of them is well known Waldmeier's rule that binds the amplitude of a cycle and the length of its ascending phase. The second…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-08-03 Vladimir G. Ivanov

We create a continuous series of daily and monthly hemispheric sunspot numbers (HSNs) from 1874 to 2020, which will be continuously expanded in the future with the HSNs provided by SILSO. Based on the available daily measurements of…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-01-06 Astrid M. Veronig , Shantanu Jain , Tatiana Podladchikova , Werner Poetzi , Frederic Clette

It is very important to forecast the future solar activity due to its effect on our planet and near space. Here, we employ the new version of the sunspot number index (version 2) to analyse the relationship between the solar maximum…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2016-09-08 V. M. S. Carrasco , J. M. Vaquero , M. C. Gallego