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Related papers: Predicting Sunspot Numbers for Solar Cycles 25 and…

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We have studied long-term variations of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity in relation to the sunspot number (SSN) during the most recent solar cycles. This study analyses the time-lag between the GCR intensity and SSN, and hysteresis…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-01-24 Eddie Ross , William J. Chaplin

We could infer a secular decreasing trend in the poloidal to toroidal solar magnetic flux amplification factor ( Af) using geomagnetic observations ( classic and IHV corrected aa indices) during the sunspot cycles 9-23. A similar decreasing…

General Physics · Physics 2010-12-23 T. E. Girish , G. Gopkumar

The solar magnetic field, thought to be generated by the motion of plasma within the Sun, alternates on the order of 11-year cycles and is incompletely understood. Industries rely on accurate forecasts of solar activity, but can solar…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-02-20 Floe Foxon

The Maunder minimum (MM) of greatly reduced solar activity took place in 1645-1715, but the exact level of sunspot activity is uncertain as based, to a large extent, on historical generic statements of the absence of spots on the Sun. Here…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-11 J. M. Vaquero , G. A. Kovaltsov , I. G. Usoskin , V. M. S. Carrasco , M. C. Gallego

We present a comprehensive analysis of Solar Cycle 25 aimed at precisely constraining the interval of its activity maximum using multiple observational parameters: sunspot number (SSN), Wolf number, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7), the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-11-24 Homer Dávila Gutiérrez

In addition to the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule (GOR), the relation of the odd cycle with the subsequent even one in the 22-year Hale solar cycle was found. It is shown that 3 years before the 11-year minimum $m$, the value of the relative sunspot…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-08-02 Yu. A. Nagovitsyn , V. G. Ivanov

A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-20 K. Petrovay

Maunder Minimum forms an archetype for the Grand minima, and detailed knowledge of its temporal development has important consequences for the solar dynamo theory dealing with long-term solar activity evolution. Here we reconsider the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-27 J. M. Vaquero , M. C. Gallego , I. G. Usoskin , G. A. Kovaltsov

After reviewing potential early indicators of an upcoming solar cycle at high latitudes, we focus attention on the rush-to-the-poles (RTTP) phenomenon in coronal green line emission. Considering various correlations between properties of…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-12-18 K. Petrovay , M. Nagy , T. Gerják , L. Juhász

Whether the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong or not is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by `feeding' observational data of the Sun's polar…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-11-26 Arnab Rai Choudhuri , Piyali Chatterjee , Jie Jiang

Total solar irradiance variations, about 0.1% between solar activity maximum and minimum, are available from accurate satellite measurements since 1978 and thus do not provide useful information on longer-term secular trends. Recently,…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2012-05-23 S. Sello

In the previous study (Hiremath 2006a), the solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and from all the 22 cycles (1755-1996), long-term amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factor are obtained. Using these…

Astrophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 K. M. Hiremath

The unexpected development of cycle 24 emphasizes the need for a better way to model future solar activity. In this article, we analyze the accumulation of spotless days during individual cycles from 1798-2010. The analysis shows that…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2011-04-27 M. Lindholm Nielsen , H. Kjeldsen

In this work we predict the maximum amplitude, its time of occurrence, and the total length of Solar Cycle 24 by linear regression to the curvature (second derivative) at the preceding minimum of a smoothed version of the sunspots time…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-05 L. C. Uzal , R. D. Piacentini , P. F. Verdes

In this work we introduce a new way of binning sunspot group data with the purpose of better understanding the impact of the solar cycle on sunspot properties and how this defined the characteristics of the extended minimum of cycle 23. Our…

Group sunspot number (GSN) series constitute the longest instrumental astronomical database providing information on solar activity. It is a compilation of observations by many individual observers, and their inter-calibration has usually…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-06-14 Theodosios Chatzistergos , Ilya G. Usoskin , Gennady A. Kovaltsov , Natalie A. Krivova , Sami K. Solanki

We present observational signatures of solar cycle 25 onset. Those signatures are visibly following a migratory path from high to low latitudes. They had starting points that are asymmetrically offset in each hemisphere at times that are…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-02-16 Scott W. McIntosh , Robert J. Leamon

Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of producing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environmental…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2012-02-28 D. Shaun Bloomfield , Paul A. Higgins , R. T. James McAteer , Peter T. Gallagher

The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun are known for their space weather and geomagnetic consequences. Among all CMEs, so-called radio-loud (RL) and halo CMEs are considered the most energetic in the sense that they are usually…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-05-05 A. Shanmugaraju , P. Pappa Kalaivani , Y. -J. Moon , O. Prakash

The McNish and Lincoln (ML) method, introduced in 1949, was one of the first attempts to produce mid-term forecasts of solar activity, up to 12 months ahead. However, it has been poorly described and evaluated in the past literature, in…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-02-15 Frédéric Clette , Shantanu Jain , Tatiana Podladchikova