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When collaborating with an AI system, we need to assess when to trust its recommendations. If we mistakenly trust it in regions where it is likely to err, catastrophic failures may occur, hence the need for Bayesian approaches for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Federico Cerutti , Lance M. Kaplan , Angelika Kimmig , Murat Sensoy

In distributed, or privacy-preserving learning, we are often given a set of probabilistic models estimated from different local repositories, and asked to combine them into a single model that gives efficient statistical estimation. A…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-01 Jun Han , Qiang Liu

In the present work, we study random walks on complex networks subject to stochastic resetting when the resetting probability is node-dependent. Using a renewal approach, we derive the exact expressions of the stationary occupation…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-05-05 Yanfei Ye , Hanshuang Chen

The bootstrap procedure has emerged as a general framework to construct prediction intervals for future observations in autoregressive time series models. Such models with outlying data points are standard in real data applications,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-17 Ufuk Beyaztas , Han Lin Shang

This paper carries out sparse-penalized deep neural networks predictors for learning weakly dependent processes, with a broad class of loss functions. We deal with a general framework that includes, regression estimation, classification,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-11 William Kengne , Modou Wade

We investigate properties of a bootstrap-based methodology for testing hypotheses about equality of certain characteristics of the distributions between different populations in the context of functional data. The suggested testing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-09-29 Efstathios Paparoditis , Theofanis Sapatinas

Learning causal graphs from multivariate time series is a ubiquitous challenge in all application domains dealing with time-dependent systems, such as in Earth sciences, biology, or engineering, to name a few. Recent developments for this…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Kevin Debeire , Jakob Runge , Andreas Gerhardus , Veronika Eyring

We study a special case of the problem of statistical learning without the i.i.d. assumption. Specifically, we suppose a learning method is presented with a sequence of data points, and required to make a prediction (e.g., a classification)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-22 Steve Hanneke , Liu Yang

When analyzing data from multiple sources, it is often convenient to strike a careful balance between two goals: capturing the heterogeneity of the samples and sharing information across them. We introduce a novel framework to model a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Laura D'Angelo , Bernardo Nipoti , Andrea Ongaro

A nonparametric procedure to estimate the conditional probability that a nonstationary geostatistical process exceeds a certain threshold value is proposed. The method consists of a bootstrap algorithm that combines conditional simulation…

It is common to show the confidence intervals or $p$-values of selected features, or predictor variables in regression, but they often involve selection bias. The selective inference approach solves this bias by conditioning on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-02 Yoshikazu Terada , Hidetoshi Shimodaira

We consider the issue of performing accurate small sample inference in beta autoregressive moving average model, which is useful for modeling and forecasting continuous variables that assumes values in the interval $(0,1)$. The inferences…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-16 Bruna Gregory Palm , Fábio M. Bayer

The block bootstrap confidence interval based on dependent data can outperform the computationally more convenient normal approximation only with non-trivial Studentization which, in the case of complicated statistics, calls for highly…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-04-29 Stephen M. S. Lee , P. Y. Lai

Frequently, clinical trials and observational studies involve complex event history data with multiple events. When the observations are independent, the analysis of such studies can be based on standard methods for multi-state models.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-30 Giorgos Bakoyannis

One of the most commonly used methods for forming confidence intervals for statistical inference is the empirical bootstrap, which is especially expedient when the limiting distribution of the estimator is unknown. However, despite its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-24 Morgane Austern , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Distribution forecast can quantify forecast uncertainty and provide various forecast scenarios with their corresponding estimated probabilities. Accurate distribution forecast is crucial for planning - for example when making production…

Bootstrap is a widely used technique that allows estimating the properties of a given estimator, such as its bias and standard error. In this paper, we evaluate and compare five bootstrap-based methods for making confidence intervals: two…

The bootstrap is a popular and convenient method for quantifying the authority of an empirical ordering of attributes, for example of a ranking of the performance of institutions or of the influence of genes on a response variable. In the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-20 Peter Hall , Hugh Miller

Inference for models with recursively defined likelihoods is computationally demanding, limiting scalability to large datasets. We propose a stabilised weighted subsampling methodology for accelerated inference based on an unbiased…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Matias Quiroz , Aishwarya Bhaskaran , Zixuan Wang , Thomas Goodwin

Bootstrapping is often applied to get confidence limits for semiparametric inference of a target parameter in the presence of nuisance parameters. Bootstrapping with replacement can be computationally expensive and problematic when…