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We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…
We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past…
Multi-model projections in climate studies are performed to quantify uncertainty and improve reliability in climate projections. The challenging issue is that there is no unique way to obtain performance metrics, nor is there any consensus…
Wave-sea ice interactions shape the transition zone between open ocean and pack ice in the polar regions. Most theoretical paradigms, implemented in coupled wave-sea ice models, predict exponential decay of the wave energy but some recent…
Weather forecasting is mostly based on the outputs of deterministic numerical weather forecasting models. Multiple runs of these models with different initial conditions result in forecast ensembles which is are used for estimating the…
Extreme precipitation in the Arctic region plays a crucial role in global weather and climate patterns. Bear Island (Bj{\o}rn{\o}ya) is located in the Norwegian Svalbard archipelago, which is, therefore, selected for our study on extreme…
Many regions across the globe broke their surface temperature records in recent years, further sparking concerns about the impending arrival of "tipping points" later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface…
There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict…
This article presents an identification benchmark based on data from a public swimming pool in operation. Such a system is both a complex process and easily understandable by all with regard to the stakes. Ultimately, the objective is to…
Subseasonal forecasting of the weather two to six weeks in advance is critical for resource allocation and advance disaster notice but poses many challenges for the forecasting community. At this forecast horizon, physics-based dynamical…
Some inflationary models predict the existence of isocurvature primordial fluctuations, in addition to the well known adiabatic perturbation. Such mixed models are not yet ruled out by available data sets. In this paper we explore the…
Climate simulations, at all grid resolutions, rely on approximations that encapsulate the forcing due to unresolved processes on resolved variables, known as parameterizations. Parameterizations often lead to inaccuracies in climate models,…
The coupled Arctic system is in rapid transition and is set to undergo further dramatic changes over the coming decades. These changes will lead most likely to an ice-free ocean in summer, expected before mid-century. The Arctic will become…
Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal…
We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical…
This study introduces ReSA-ConvLSTM, an artificial intelligence (AI) framework for systematic bias correction in numerical weather prediction (NWP). We propose three innovations by integrating dynamic climatological normalization, ConvLSTM…
We examine the long-term correlations and multifractal properties of daily satellite retrievals of Arctic sea ice albedo and extent, for periods of $\sim$ 23 years and 32 years respectively. The approach harnesses a recent development…
The coupling of weather, sea-ice, ocean, and wave forecasting systems has been a long-standing research focus to improve Arctic forecasting system and their realism and is also a priority of international initiatives such as the WMO…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
Seasonal climate predictions support planning and risk management by offering early information of the most likely-to-occur climate conditions in the coming months, and associated uncertainties. Ensemble forecasts enable this by simulating…