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A central goal of modern causal inference is estimating heterogeneous treatment effects to answer questions like "how does an intervention affect each unit," rather than only on average. We study this problem with panel-data where we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-29 Anay Mehrotra , Phuc Tran , Van H. Vu , Manolis Zampetakis

A new meta-algorithm for estimating the conditional average treatment effects is proposed in the paper. The main idea underlying the algorithm is to consider a new dataset consisting of feature vectors produced by means of concatenation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-10 Lev V. Utkin , Mikhail V. Kots , Viacheslav S. Chukanov

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is central to data-driven decision-making, yet industrial applications often face a fundamental tension between limited randomized controlled trial (RCT) budgets and abundant but biased…

Evaluating the value of new clinical treatment rules based on patient characteristics is important but often complicated by hidden confounding factors in observational studies. Standard methods for estimating the average patient outcome if…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Johannes Hruza , Erin Gabriel , Arvid Sjölander , Samir Bhatt , Michael Sachs

This dissertation focuses on modern causal inference under uncertainty and data restrictions, with applications to neoadjuvant clinical trials, distributed data networks, and robust individualized decision making. In the first project, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-24 Xiaoqing Tan

The average treatment effect (ATE), the mean difference in potential outcomes under treatment and control, is a canonical causal effect. Overlap, which says that all subjects have non-zero probability of either treatment status, is…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Herbert P. Susmann , Alec McClean , Iván Díaz

Dropout is common in clinical studies, with up to half of patients leaving early due to side effects or other reasons. When dropout is informative (i.e., dependent on survival time), it introduces censoring bias, because of which treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Yuxin Wang , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Maresa Schröder , Stefan Feuerriegel

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data with unobserved confounders. The CATE function maps baseline covariates to individual causal effect predictions and is key for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-09 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Angela Zhou

The layered structure of deep neural networks hinders the use of numerous analysis tools and thus the development of its interpretability. Inspired by the success of functional brain networks, we propose a novel framework for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-25 Ben Zhang , Zhetong Dong , Junsong Zhang , Hongwei Lin

Existing weighting methods for treatment effect estimation are often built upon the idea of propensity scores or covariate balance. They usually impose strong assumptions on treatment assignment or outcome model to obtain unbiased…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-09 Dongcheng Zhang , Kunpeng Zhang

We study the problem of learning personalized decision policies from observational data while accounting for possible unobserved confounding. Previous approaches, which assume unconfoundedness, i.e., that no unobserved confounders affect…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Nathan Kallus , Angela Zhou

Standard deep learning models that employ the categorical cross-entropy loss are known to perform well at image classification tasks. However, many standard models thus obtained often exhibit issues like feature redundancy, low…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-24 Hongjun Choi , Anirudh Som , Pavan Turaga

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) frequently utilize covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR) (e.g., stratified block randomization) and commonly suffer from imperfect compliance. This paper studies the identification and inference for the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-02 Federico A. Bugni , Mengsi Gao , Filip Obradovic , Amilcar Velez

While randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for estimating causal treatment effects, their limited sample sizes and restrictive criteria make it difficult to extrapolate to a broader population. Observational data, while…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Stephanie Riley , Ricardo Silva , Matthew Sperrin

Estimating treatment effects using observation data often relies on the assumption of no unmeasured confounders. However, unmeasured confounding variables may exist in many real-world problems. It can lead to a biased estimation without…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-19 Namhwa Lee , Shujie Ma

Randomized control trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for estimating causal effects, but often use samples that are non-representative of the actual population of interest. We propose a reweighting method for estimating population average…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-09 Kellie Ottoboni , Jason Poulos

There is a large literature on semiparametric estimation of average treatment effects under unconfounded treatment assignment in settings with a fixed number of covariates. More recently attention has focused on settings with a large number…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-26 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens , Thai Pham , Stefan Wager

Identifying causal treatment (or exposure) effects in observational studies requires the data to satisfy the unconfoundedness assumption which is not testable using the observed data. With sensitivity analysis, one can determine how the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-31 Yang Ou , Lu Tang , Chung-Chou H. Chang

This paper studies identification of average treatment effects in a panel data setting. It introduces a novel nonparametric factor model and proves identification of average treatment effects. The identification proof is based on the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-26 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

We are interested in the estimation of average treatment effects based on right-censored data of an observational study. We focus on causal inference of differences between t-year absolute event risks in a situation with competing risks. We…