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Causal inference on a population of units connected through a network often presents technical challenges, including how to account for interference. In the presence of local interference, for instance, potential outcomes of a unit depend…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-02 Laura Forastiere , Edoardo M. Airoldi , Fabrizia Mealli

Consider sensitivity analysis for estimating average treatment effects under unmeasured confounding, assumed to satisfy a marginal sensitivity model. At the population level, we provide new representations for the sharp population bounds…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-26 Zhiqiang Tan

Although randomized controlled trials have long been regarded as the ``gold standard'' for evaluating treatment effects, there is no natural prevention from post-treatment events. For example, non-compliance makes the actual treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-25 Qinqing Liu , Xiang Peng , Tao Zhang , Yuhao Deng

We consider estimation and inference of the effects of a policy in the absence of an untreated or control group. We obtain unbiased estimators of individual (heterogeneous) treatment effects and a consistent and asymptotically normal…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-13 Irene Botosaru , Raffaella Giacomini , Martin Weidner

When estimating treatment effects, the golden standard is to conduct a randomized experiment and then contrast outcomes associated with the treatment group and the control group. However, in many cases, randomized experiments are either…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-08 Kevin Han

Inferring unbiased treatment effects has received widespread attention in the machine learning community. In recent years, our community has proposed numerous solutions in standard settings, high-dimensional treatment settings, and even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Krzysztof Kacprzyk , Samuel Holt , Jeroen Berrevoets , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

Neural Networks (NNs) for causal effect estimation have shown strong empirical performance, yet endowing them with desirable semiparametric properties -- doubly robustness and fast convergence rates -- remains challenging. A common approach…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Jiahong Li , Zeqin Yang , Jixing Xu , Enzheng Hua , Zhichao Zou , Peng Zhen , Jiecheng Guo

This paper defines a general class of relaxations of the unconfoundedness assumption. This class includes several previous approaches as special cases, including the marginal sensitivity model of Tan (2006). This class therefore allows us…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-28 Matthew A. Masten , Alexandre Poirier , Muyang Ren

In observational studies, balancing covariates in different treatment groups is essential to estimate treatment effects. One of the most commonly used methods for such purposes is weighting. The performance of this class of methods usually…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-07 Ruoqi Yu , Shulei Wang

This paper proposes a new non-parametric bootstrap method to quantify the uncertainty of average treatment effect estimate for the treated from matching estimators. More specifically, it seeks to quantify the uncertainty associated with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-21 Jing Li

Consider the problem of estimating average treatment effects when a large number of covariates are used to adjust for possible confounding through outcome regression and propensity score models. The conventional approach of model building…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-31 Zhiqiang Tan

Network data have appeared frequently in recent research. For example, in comparing the effects of different types of treatment, network models have been proposed to improve the quality of estimation and hypothesis testing. In this paper,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-04 Zhixin Zhou , Ping Li , Feifang Hu

This paper proposes a novel approach for estimating treatment effects in panel data settings, addressing key limitations of the standard difference-in-differences (DID) approach. The standard approach relies on the parallel trends…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-14 Shoya Ishimaru

We consider estimation and inference on average treatment effects under unconfoundedness conditional on the realizations of the treatment variable and covariates. Given nonparametric smoothness and/or shape restrictions on the conditional…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-04 Timothy B. Armstrong , Michal Kolesár

Long-term treatment effect estimation is a significant but challenging problem in many applications. Existing methods rely on ideal assumptions, such as no unobserved confounders or binary treatment, to estimate long-term average treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Zeqin Yang , Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Yuguang Yan , Zhifeng Hao , Zhipeng Yu , Zhichao Zou , Jixing Xu , Zhen Peng , Jiecheng Guo

In many experimental or quasi-experimental studies, outcomes of interest are only observed for subjects who select (or are selected) to engage in the activity generating the outcome. Outcome data is thus endogenously missing for units who…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Cyrus Samii , Ye Wang , Junlong Aaron Zhou

This paper presents a weighted optimization framework that unifies the binary,multi-valued, continuous, as well as mixture of discrete and continuous treatment, under the unconfounded treatment assignment. With a general loss function, the…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-08-20 Chunrong Ai , Oliver Linton , Kaiji Motegi , Zheng Zhang

Heterogeneous treatment effect estimation in high-stakes applications demands models that simultaneously optimize precision, interpretability, and calibration. Many existing tree-based causal inference techniques, however, exhibit high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-21 Yichen Liu

We provide novel bounds on average treatment effects (on the treated) that are valid under an unconfoundedness assumption. Our bounds are designed to be robust in challenging situations, for example, when the conditioning variables take on…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-12 Sokbae Lee , Martin Weidner

In recent years, new regularization methods based on (deep) neural networks have shown very promising empirical performance for the numerical solution of ill-posed problems, e.g., in medical imaging and imaging science. Due to the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-06-07 Tim Jahn , Bangti Jin