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One of the open problems in the field of forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the ability to form accurate assessments of uncertainty having only incomplete information about the distribution of random inputs. Another challenge is to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-25 Ling Guo , Akil Narayan , Yongle Liu , Tao Zhou

This paper deals with some of the methodologies used to construct polynomial surrogate models based on generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansions for applications to uncertainty quantification (UQ) in aerodynamic computations. A core…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2018-03-14 Eric Savin , Andrea Resmini , Jacques Peter

Orthogonal polynomial approximations form the foundation to a set of well-established methods for uncertainty quantification known as polynomial chaos. These approximations deliver models for emulating physical systems in a variety of…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-03-23 Chun Yui Wong , Pranay Seshadri , Andrew B. Duncan , Ashley Scillitoe , Geoffrey Parks

We introduce PoCET: a free and open-scource Polynomial Chaos Expansion Toolbox for Matlab, featuring the automatic generation of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) for linear and nonlinear dynamic systems with time-invariant stochastic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-07-13 Felix Petzke , Ali Mesbah , Stefan Streif

We propose a method for quantifying uncertainty in high-dimensional PDE systems with random parameters, where the number of solution evaluations is small. Parametric PDE solutions are often approximated using a spectral decomposition based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-09 Jacqueline Wentz , Alireza Doostan

This paper presents a method for performing Uncertainty Quantification in high-dimensional uncertain spaces by combining arbitrary polynomial chaos with a recently proposed scheme for sensitivity enhancement (1). Including available…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-09 Nick Pepper , Francesco Montomoli , Kyriakos Kantarakias

Coupled problems with various combinations of multiple physics, scales, and domains can be found in numerous areas of science and engineering. A key challenge in the formulation and implementation of corresponding coupled models is to…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2012-07-05 Maarten Arnst , Roger Ghanem , Eric Phipps , John Red-Horse

Sampling orthogonal polynomial bases via Monte Carlo is of interest for uncertainty quantification of models with high-dimensional random inputs, using Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions. It is known that bounding a probabilistic parameter,…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-22 Jerrad Hampton , Alireza Doostan

An integrated optimization method based on the constrained multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) and non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is proposed, which solves robust multi-objective optimization problems under…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2022-09-29 Yuji Takubo , Masahiro Kanazaki

To date, the analysis of high-dimensional, computationally expensive engineering models remains a difficult challenge in risk and reliability engineering. We use a combination of dimensionality reduction and surrogate modelling termed…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-20 Max Ehre , Iason Papaioannou , Bruno Sudret , Daniel Straub

Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) with high dimensionality are commonly encountered in computational physics and engineering. However, finding solutions for these PDEs can be computationally expensive, making model-order reduction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-07 Sebastian Kaltenbach , Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis , Petros Koumoutsakos

The Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) technique recovers a finite second order random variable exploiting suitable linear combinations of orthogonal polynomials which are functions of a given stochas- tic quantity {\xi}, hence acting as a…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-31 Luca Di Persio , Michele Bonollo , Gregorio Pellegrini

This paper investigates the idea of designing data-driven partial estimators for nonlinear systems showing parametric uncertainties using sparse multivariate polynomial relationships. A general framework is first presented and then…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-04 Mazen Alamir

Software engineers often have to estimate the performance of a software system before having full knowledge of the system parameters, such as workload and operational profile. These uncertain parameters inevitably affect the accuracy of…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2018-01-16 Aldeida Aleti , Catia Trubiani , André van Hoorn , Pooyan Jamshidi

In this paper, we propose a model's sparse representation based on reduced mixed generalized multiscale finite element (GMsFE) basis methods for elliptic PDEs with random inputs. Mixed generalized multiscale finite element method (GMsFEM)…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-04-05 Lijian Jiang , Qiuqi Li

This work introduces a method to equip data-driven polynomial chaos expansion surrogate models with intervals that quantify the predictive uncertainty of the surrogate. To that end, jackknife-based conformal prediction is integrated into…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Dimitrios Loukrezis , Dimitris G. Giovanis

The work presented here investigates the application of polynomial chaos expansion toward input shaper design in order to maintain robustness in dynamical systems subject to uncertainty. Furthermore, this work intends to specifically…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-05 Johannes Güttler , Karan Baker , Premjit Saha , James Warner , Adrian Stein

Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events motivates the assessment of power system resilience. The random nature of power system failures during these events mandates probabilistic resilience assessment, but…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-05 Aidan Gerkis , Xiaozhe Wang

Robust physics (e.g., governing equations and laws) discovery is of great interest for many engineering fields and explainable machine learning. A critical challenge compared with general training is that the term and format of governing…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-02-15 Zhiming Zhang , Yongming Liu

Gaussian graphical models are widely used to infer dependence structures. Bayesian methods are appealing to quantify uncertainty associated with structural learning, i.e., the plausibility of conditional independence statements given the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-05 Deborah Sulem , Jack Jewson , David Rossell