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Existing guarantees in terms of rigorous upper bounds on the generalization error for the original random forest algorithm, one of the most frequently used machine learning methods, are unsatisfying. We discuss and evaluate various…
(To appear in The American Statistician.) Distance covariance (Sz\'ekely, Rizzo, and Bakirov, 2007) is a fascinating recent notion, which is popular as a test for dependence of any type between random variables $X$ and $Y$. This approach…
The PAC-Bayesian approach is a powerful set of techniques to derive non- asymptotic risk bounds for random estimators. The corresponding optimal distribution of estimators, usually called the Gibbs posterior, is unfortunately intractable.…
In this work, we propose a PAC-Bayes bound for the generalization risk of the Gibbs classifier in the multi-class classification framework. The novelty of our work is the critical use of the confusion matrix of a classifier as an error…
Calibrated probability outputs of trained classifiers are increasingly used as inputs to downstream regression estimands such as effects, prevalences, or disparities for a latent group observed only on a small labelled subset. A standard…
Sums of independent, bounded random variables concentrate around their expectation approximately as well a Gaussian of the same variance. Well known results of this form include the Bernstein, Hoeffding, and Chernoff inequalities and many…
We propose confidence regions with asymptotically correct uniform coverage probability of parameters whose Fisher information matrix can be singular at important points of the parameter set. Our work is motivated by the need for reliable…
We study sequential mean estimation in $\mathbb{R}^d$. In particular, we derive time-uniform confidence spheres -- confidence sphere sequences (CSSs) -- which contain the mean of random vectors with high probability simultaneously across…
The aim of this paper is to generalize the PAC-Bayesian theorems proved by Catoni in the classification setting to more general problems of statistical inference. We show how to control the deviations of the risk of randomized estimators. A…
This paper derives confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for the classical problem of estimating an unknown mean from bounded observations. We present a general approach for deriving concentration bounds, that…
Based on a progressively type-II censored sample from the exponential distribution with unknown location and scale parameter, confidence bands are proposed for the underlying distribution function by using confidence regions for the…
Quantile and quantile effect functions are important tools for descriptive and causal analyses due to their natural and intuitive interpretation. Existing inference methods for these functions do not apply to discrete random variables. This…
This paper presents four theoretical contributions that improve the usability of risk certificates for neural networks based on PAC-Bayes bounds. First, two bounds on the KL divergence between Bernoulli distributions enable the derivation…
The estimation of signal frequency count in the presence of background noise has had much discussion in the recent physics literature, and Mandelkern [1] brings the central issues to the statistical community, leading in turn to extensive…
We present algorithms for estimating the forward reachable set of a dynamical system using only a finite collection of independent and identically distributed samples. The produced estimate is the sublevel set of a function called an…
Between the two dominant schools of thought in statistics, namely, Bayesian and classical/frequentist, a main difference is that the former is grounded in the mathematically rigorous theory of probability while the latter is not. In this…
In this work, we improve upon the guarantees for sparse random embeddings, as they were recently provided and analyzed by Freksen at al. (NIPS'18) and Jagadeesan (NIPS'19). Specifically, we show that (a) our bounds are explicit as opposed…
The Chernoff bound is a well-known tool for obtaining a high probability bound on the expectation of a Bernoulli random variable in terms of its sample average. This bound is commonly used in statistical learning theory to upper bound the…
The PAC-Bayesian framework has significantly advanced the understanding of statistical learning, particularly for majority voting methods. Despite its successes, its application to multi-view learning -- a setting with multiple…
We present a set of high-probability inequalities that control the concentration of weighted averages of multiple (possibly uncountably many) simultaneously evolving and interdependent martingales. Our results extend the PAC-Bayesian…