Related papers: An Elo-like System for Massive Multiplayer Competi…
Many high-stakes decision-making problems, such as those found within cybersecurity and economics, can be modeled as competitive resource allocation games. In these games, multiple players must allocate limited resources to overcome their…
Chess championships are often organised as a Swiss-system tournament, causing great challenges in ranking the participants due to the different strength of schedules and possible circular triads. The paper suggests that pairwise comparison…
Game theory has been increasingly applied in settings where the game is not known outright, but has to be estimated by sampling. For example, meta-games that arise in multi-agent evaluation can only be accessed by running a succession of…
In this work we develop a new algorithm for rating of teams (or players) in one-on-one games by exploiting the observed difference of the game-points (such as goals), also known as a margin of victory (MOV). Our objective is to obtain the…
This work reconciles two perspectives on the Elo ranking that coexist in the literature: the practitioner's view as a heuristic feedback rule, and the statistician's view as online maximum likelihood estimation via stochastic gradient…
We study the effects of randomness on competitions based on an elementary random process in which there is a finite probability that a weaker team upsets a stronger team. We apply this model to sports leagues and sports tournaments, and…
The meteoric rise of online games has created a need for accurate skill rating systems for tracking improvement and fair matchmaking. Although many skill rating systems are deployed, with various theoretical foundations, less work has been…
In this note, we introduce a novel performance rating system called Performance Rating Equilibrium (PRE). A PRE is a vector of ratings for each player, such that if these ratings were each player's initial rating at the start of a…
The Elo rating system has been recognised as an effective method for modelling students and items within adaptive educational systems. The existing Elo-based models have the limiting assumption that items are only tagged with a single…
A common form of competition is one where judges grade contestants' performances which are then compiled to determine the final ranking of the contestants. Unlike in another common form of competition where two contestants play a…
The Elo rating system is a simple and widely used method for calculating players' skills from paired comparisons data. Many have extended it in various ways. Yet the question of updating players' variances remains to be further explored. In…
Evaluating a country's sporting success provides insight into its decision-making and infrastructure for developing athletic talent. The Olympic Games serve as a global benchmark, yet conventional medal rankings can be unduly influenced by…
Accurate estimation of question difficulty and prediction of student performance play key roles in optimizing educational instruction and enhancing learning outcomes within digital learning platforms. The Elo rating system is widely…
Ranking a vector of alternatives on the basis of a series of paired comparisons is a relevant topic in many instances. A popular example is ranking contestants in sport tournaments. To this purpose, paired comparison models such as the…
As large language models (LLMs) continue to advance, accurately and comprehensively evaluating their performance becomes increasingly challenging. Ranking the relative performance of LLMs based on Elo ratings, according to human judgment,…
Decision-making often involves ranking and selection. For example, to assemble a team of political forecasters, we might begin by narrowing our choice set to the candidates we are confident rank among the top 10% in forecasting ability.…
Prediction is a well-studied machine learning task, and prediction algorithms are core ingredients in online products and services. Despite their centrality in the competition between online companies who offer prediction-based products,…
Stochastic optimization algorithms have been successfully applied in several domains to find optimal solutions. Because of the ever-growing complexity of the integrated systems, novel stochastic algorithms are being proposed, which makes…
In this paper, we describe an approach to rank sport players based on their efficiency. Although is extremely useful to analyze the performance of team games there is no unanimity on the use of a single index to perform such a ranking. We…
Two-player zero-sum repeated games are well understood. Computing the value of such a game is straightforward. Additionally, if the payoffs are dependent on a random state of the game known to one, both, or neither of the players, the…