Related papers: Is seismicity operating at a critical point?
In complex systems, external parameters often determine the phase in which the system operates, i.e., its macroscopic behavior. For nearly a century, statistical physics has extensively studied systems' transitions across phases,…
We show that, contrary to previous suggestions based on computer simulations or erroneous theoretical treatments, the critical points of the random-field Ising model out of equilibrium, when quasi-statically changing the applied source at…
Inverse Ising inference allows pairwise interactions of complex binary systems to be reconstructed from empirical correlations. Typical estimators used for this inference, such as Pseudo-likelihood maximization (PLM), are biased. Using the…
Geostatistical seismic inversion is commonly used to infer the spatial distribution of the subsurface petro-elastic properties by perturbing the model parameter space through iterative stochastic sequential simulations/co-simulations. The…
Following Hergarten and Neugebauer [2002] who discovered aftershock and foreshock sequences in the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) discrete block-spring earthquake model, we investigate to what degree the simple toppling mechanism of this…
Let $V_M,(m_0)$ be the number of m>M aftershocks caused by $m_0$ event. We consider the $V_M,(m_0)$ distribution within epidemic-type seismicity models, ETAS(F). These models include the Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitude and Utsu law for…
The boundary-induced scaling of three-dimensional random field Ising magnets is investigated close to the bulk critical point by exact combinatorial optimization methods. We measure several exponents describing surface criticality:…
A new non-ergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for effective amplitude spectral ($EAS$) values for California is presented in this study. $EAS$, which is defined in Goulet et al. (2018), is a smoothed rotation-independent Fourier amplitude…
Systemic risk measures have been shown to be predictive of financial crises and declines in real activity. Thus, forecasting them is of major importance in finance and economics. In this paper, we propose a new forecasting method for…
By analyzing the seismicity in natural time and studying the evolution of the fluctuations of the entropy change of seismicity under time reversal for various scales of different length i (number of events), we can identify the approach of…
Models for forecasting earthquakes are currently tested prospectively in well-organized testing centers, using data collected after the models and their parameters are completely specified. The extent to which these models agree with the…
Static and dynamic stress changes in the Earth's crust induced by an earthquake typically trigger other earthquakes. Identifying such aftershocks is an important step in seismic hazard assessment but has remained challenging, especially in…
Seeing the Earth crust as crisscrossed by faults filled with fluid at close to lithostatic pressures, we develop a model in which its elastic modulii are different in net tension versus compression. In constrast with standard nonlinear…
Representing and quantifying uncertainty in physical parameterisations is a central challenge in weather and climate modelling, and approaches are often developed separately for different timescales. Here, we introduce a unified framework…
The recent discovery of the extraordinary-log (E-Log) criticality is a celebrated achievement in modern critical theory and calls for generalization. Using large-scale Monte Carlo simulations, we study the critical phenomena of plane…
Scale invariance is a central organizing principle in physics, underlying phenomena that range from critical behaviour in statistical mechanics to transport and chaos in nonlinear dynamical systems. Here we present a unified and physically…
Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc. produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts…
We revisit a recent claim that the Earth's climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such…
The theory, the design and the experimental validation of a catastrophe machine based on a flexible element are addressed for the first time. A general theoretical framework is developed by extending that of the classical catastrophe…
We show, via explicit computation on a constrained bosonic model, that the presence of subsystem symmetries can lead to a quantum phase transition (QPT) where the critical point exhibits an emergent enhanced symmetry. Such a transition…