Related papers: Is seismicity operating at a critical point?
The physics of earthquake triggering together with simple assumptions of self-similarity impose the existence of a minimum magnitude m0 below which earthquakes do not trigger other earthquakes. Noting that the magnitude md of completeness…
Hawkes process is one of the most commonly used models for investigating the self-exciting nature of earthquake occurrences. However, seismicity patterns have complicated characteristics due to heterogeneous geology and stresses, for which…
We present results from a physical experiment which demonstrates that a sheared granular medium behaves in a manner analogous to earthquake activity. The device consists of an annular plate rotating over a granular medium in a stick-slip…
Data based detection and quantification of causation in complex, nonlinear dynamical systems is of paramount importance to science, engineering and beyond. Inspired by the widely used methodology in recent years, the cross-map-based…
Waveform cross correlation is an efficient tool for detection and characterization of seismic signals. The efficiency critically depends on the availability of master events. For the purposes of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty,…
We propose that a linear relation between the energy of stress-bearing interactions and the surface of contact within the fragment-asperity model for earthquakes. It reveals as the only one that leads to a closed elementary form for a…
Analyzing the clustering of galaxies at the field level in principle promises access to all the cosmological information available. Given this incentive, in this paper we investigate the performance of field-based forward modeling approach…
Using the ETAS branching model of triggered seismicity, we apply the formalism of generating probability functions to calculate exactly the average difference between the magnitude of a mainshock and the magnitude of its largest aftershock…
A dynamic earthquake source process is modeled by assuming interaction among frictional heat, fluid pressure, and inelastic porosity. In particular, fluid pressure increase due to frictional heating (thermal pressurization effect) and fluid…
Aftershock sequences are of particular interest in seismic research since they may condition seismic activity in a given region over long time spans. While they are typically identified with periods of enhanced seismic activity after a…
We consider the effect of different temporal error structures on the inference of equilibrium climate sensitivity\footnote{ECS is defined as the realized equilibrium surface warming---globally-averaged surface air temperature---for a…
Simple models for ruptures along a heterogeneous earthquake fault zone are studied, focussing on the interplay between the roles of disorder and dynamical effects. A class of models are found to operate naturally at a critical point whose…
Many systems in nature are conjectured to exist at a critical point, including the brain and earthquake faults. The primary reason for this conjecture is that the distribution of clusters (avalanches of firing neurons in the brain or…
Inferring the presence of critical dynamics from continuous measure- ments is a challenging problem. We solve this problem by showing that continuous narrowband dynamics from a critical system exhibit qualita- tively differing behaviors…
Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event.…
Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth's climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO2. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is one such metric that measures the equilibrium response to CO2 doubling.…
Estimates of seismic wave speeds in the Earth (seismic velocity models) are key input parameters to earthquake simulations for ground motion prediction. Owing to the non-uniqueness of the seismic inverse problem, typically many velocity…
Reliability analysis is a sub-field of uncertainty quantification that assesses the probability of a system performing as intended under various uncertainties. Traditionally, this analysis relies on deterministic models, where experiments…
Unfortunately, working scientists sometimes reflexively continue to use "buzz phrases" grounded in once prevalent paradigms that have been subsequently refuted. This can impede both earthquake research and hazard mitigation. Well-worn…
In earthquake source inversions aimed at understanding diverse fault activities on earthquake faults using seismic observation data, uncertainties in velocity structure models are typically not considered. As a result, biases and…