Related papers: Is seismicity operating at a critical point?
Due to the paucity of strong recorded accelerograms, earthquake engineering analysis relies on accelerogram amplitude scaling for structural damage/collapse assessment and target spectrum matching. This paper investigates seismological…
The frictional instability associated with earthquake initiation and earthquake dynamics is believed to be mainly controlled by the dynamics of fragmented rocks within the fault gauge. Principal features of the emerging seismicity (e.g.…
Nearly all aspects of earthquake rupture are controlled by the friction along the fault that progressively increases with tectonic forcing, but in general cannot be directly measured. We show that fault friction can be determined at any…
Scaling analysis reveals striking regularities in earthquake occurrence. The time between any one earthquake and that following it is random, but it is described by the same universal-probability distribution for any spatial region and…
We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…
Uncertainty can be classified as either aleatoric (intrinsic randomness) or epistemic (imperfect knowledge of parameters). The majority of frameworks assessing infectious disease risk consider only epistemic uncertainty. We only ever…
We examine the hypothesis proposed in recent years by several authors that the crust is in a self-organized critical (SOC) state by exploring how the SOC concept can help in understanding the observed earthquake clustering on relatively…
Within the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework, the fragility model plays a pivotal role. Such a model represents the probability that the engineering demand parameter (EDP) exceeds a certain safety threshold given a…
A globally driven self-organized critical model of earthquakes with conservative dynamics has been studied. An open but moving boundary condition has been used so that the origin (epicenter) of every avalanche (earthquake) is at the center…
Induced seismicity has emerged as a source of a significant earthquake hazard associated with recent development of unconventional energy resources. Therefore, it is imperative to develop stochastic models that can accurately describe the…
We present theoretical arguments and simulation data indicating that the scaling of earthquake events in models of faults with long-range stress transfer is composed of at least three distinct regions. These regions correspond to three…
Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…
This manuscript presents verification cases that are developed to study the electrothermal instability (ETI). Specific verification cases are included to ensure that the unit physics components necessary to model the ETI are accurate,…
Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit…
Active faults release elastic strain energy via a whole continuum of modes of slip, ranging from devastating earthquakes to Slow Slip Events and persistent creep. Understanding the mechanisms controlling the occurrence of rapid, dynamic…
Catastrophic events, though rare, do occur and when they occur, they have devastating effects. It is, therefore, of utmost importance to understand the complexity of the underlying dynamics and signatures of catastrophic events, such as…
Earthquake prediction has been a challenging research area for many decades, where the future occurrence of this highly uncertain calamity is predicted. In this paper, several parametric and non-parametric features were calculated, where…
Any periodic variations of earthquake occurrence rates in response to small, known, periodic stress variations provide important opportunities to learn about the earthquake nucleation process. Yet, reliable detection of earthquake…
This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties…
This paper addresses the possibility of using robust control theory for preventing earthquakes through fluid injections in the earth's crust. The designed robust controllers drive aseismically a fault system to a new equilibrium point of…