Related papers: Is seismicity operating at a critical point?
The critical brain hypothesis posits that neural systems operate near a phase transition, optimizing the processing of information. While scale invariance and non-Gaussian dynamics--hallmarks of criticality--have been observed in brain…
There is mounting empirical evidence that many communities of living organisms display key features which closely resemble those of physical systems at criticality. We here introduce a minimal model framework for the dynamics of a community…
The collapse of man-made and natural structures is a complex phenomenon that has been studied for centuries. We propose a new approach to understanding catastrophic instabilities, based on the idea that they do not occur at the critical…
Computational earthquake sequence models provide generative estimates of the time, location, and size of synthetic seismic events that can be compared with observed earthquake histories and assessed as rupture forecasts. Here we describe a…
Although our existing one-dimensional (1D) model provides a successful quantitative description of rupture events, a 1D description is somewhat limited. We therefore derive a two-dimensional (2D) model which allows us to investigate…
Upon employing the analysis in a new time domain, termed natural time, it has been recently demonstrated that a remarkable change of seismicity emerges before major mainshocks in California. What constitutes this change is that the…
Quantifying model uncertainty is critical for understanding prediction reliability, yet distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty remains challenging. We extend recent work from classification to regression to provide a…
Short and long range interactions between earthquakes are attracting increasing interest. Scale invariant properties of seismicity in time, space and energy argue for the presence of complex triggering mechanisms where, like a cascade…
In real-world applications, observations are often constrained to a small fraction of a system. Such spatial subsampling can be caused by the inaccessibility or the sheer size of the system, and cannot be overcome by longer sampling.…
Friction plays a fundamental role in many natural processes, including earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. Earthquakes occur when highly compressed fault surfaces accumulate large enough shear stresses, causing the faults to…
Here we suggest a new procedure through which one can identify when the accumulation of stresses before major earthquakes (EQs) (of magnitude M 8.2 or larger) occurs. By analyzing the seismicity in the frame of natural time, which is a new…
Post-disaster inspections are critical to emergency management after earthquakes. The availability of data on the condition of civil infrastructure immediately after an earthquake is of great importance for emergency management.…
Aftershock occurrence is characterized by scaling behaviors with quite universal exponents. At the same time, deviations from universality have been proposed as a tool to discriminate aftershocks from foreshocks. Here we show that the…
A multicomponent random process used as a model for the problem of space-time earthquake prediction; this allows us to develop consistent estimation for conditional probabilities of large earthquakes if the values of the predictor…
In this paper we study a simple model of a purely excitatory neural network that, by construction, operates at a critical point. This model allows us to consider various markers of criticality and illustrate how they should perform in a…
Stochastic dynamics of a nonconserved scalar order parameter near its critical point, subject to random stirring and mixing, is studied using the field theoretic renormalization group. The stirring and mixing are modelled by a random…
Local scale invariance (LSI) has been recently proposed as a possible extension of the dynamical scaling in systems at the critical point and during phase ordering. LSI has been applied inter alia to provide predictions for the scaling…
Critical behavior developed near a quantum phase transition, interesting in its own right, offers exciting opportunities to explore the universality of strongly-correlated systems near the ground state. Cold atoms in optical lattices, in…
We study a 2D quasi-static discrete {\it crack} anti-plane model of a tectonic plate with long range elastic forces and quenched disorder. The plate is driven at its border and the load is transfered to all elements through elastic forces.…
The statistics of natural catastrophes contains very counter-intuitive results. Using earthquakes as a working example, we show that the energy radiated by such events follows a power-law or Pareto distribution. This means, in theory, that…