Related papers: Encoded Value-at-Risk: A Predictive Machine for Fi…
Predicting future values at risk (fVaR) is an important problem in finance. They arise in the modelling of future initial margin requirements for counterparty credit risk and future market risk VaR. One is also interested in derived…
Value-at-Risk (VaR) is one of the main regulatory tools used for risk management purposes. However, it is difficult to compute optimal VaR portfolios; that is, an optimal risk-reward portfolio allocation using VaR as the risk measure. This…
This paper presents a new method to compute VaR (value at risk) and perform corresponding variance based sensitivity analysis. VaR has a long history of being applied in stock price prediction and investment portfolio analysis. Traditional…
In the financial field, precise risk assessment tools are essential for decision-making. Recent studies have challenged the notion that traditional network loss functions like Mean Square Error (MSE) are adequate, especially under extreme…
We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditionally on the realisation of…
Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are one class of generative probabilistic latent-variable models designed for inference based on known data. We develop three variations on VAEs by introducing a second parameterized encoder/decoder pair and,…
The popular systemic risk measure CoVaR (conditional Value-at-Risk) and its variants are widely used in economics and finance. In this article, we propose joint dynamic forecasting models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and CoVaR. The CoVaR…
While unsupervised variational autoencoders (VAE) have become a powerful tool in neuroimage analysis, their application to supervised learning is under-explored. We aim to close this gap by proposing a unified probabilistic model for…
Learning a generative model from partial data (data with missingness) is a challenging area of machine learning research. We study a specific implementation of the Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes (AEVB) algorithm, named in this paper as a…
There are many problems in physics, biology, and other natural sciences in which symbolic regression can provide valuable insights and discover new laws of nature. A widespread Deep Neural Networks do not provide interpretable solutions.…
We present a coupled Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) method that improves the accuracy and robustness of the probabilistic inferences on represented data. The new method models the dependency between input feature vectors (images) and weighs…
Deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have proven highly effective for visual recognition, where learning a universal representation from activations of convolutional layer plays a fundamental problem. In this paper, we present Fisher…
Value at risk (VaR) is a risk measure that has been widely implemented by financial institutions. This paper measures the correlation among asset price changes implied from VaR calculation. Empirical results using US and UK equity indexes…
In many sequential decision-making problems we may want to manage risk by minimizing some measure of variability in costs in addition to minimizing a standard criterion. Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a relatively new risk measure that…
Modern control systems are increasingly turning to machine learning algorithms to augment their performance and adaptability. Within this context, Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) has emerged as a promising control framework, particularly…
Risk measure forecast and model have been developed in order to not only provide better forecast but also preserve its (empirical) property especially coherent property. Whilst the widely used risk measure of Value-at-Risk (VaR) has shown…
In economics, insurance and finance, value at risk (VaR) is a widely used measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets. For a given portfolio, time horizon, and probability $\alpha$, the $100\alpha\%$ VaR is…
Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are a popular generative model used to approximate distributions. The encoder part of the VAE is used in amortized learning of latent variables, producing a latent representation for data samples. Recently,…
The aim of this paper is to describe a new an integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies.…
Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and value-at-risk (VaR) are popular tail-risk measures in finance and insurance industries as well as in highly reliable, safety-critical uncertain environments where often the underlying probability…