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Uncertainty quantification is essential when deploying learning-based control methods in safety-critical systems. This is commonly realized by constructing uncertainty tubes that enclose the unknown function of interest, e.g., the reward…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-02 Abdullah Tokmak , Toni Karvonen , Thomas B. Schön , Dominik Baumann

Real-world scenarios frequently involve multi-objective data-driven optimization problems, characterized by unknown problem coefficients and multiple conflicting objectives. Traditional two-stage methods independently apply a machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Peng Li , Lixia Wu , Chaoqun Feng , Haoyuan Hu , Lei Fu , Jieping Ye

The adaptation and use of Machine Learning (ML) in our daily lives has led to concerns in lack of transparency, privacy, reliability, among others. As a result, we are seeing research in niche areas such as interpretability, causality, bias…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Fahimeh Fakour , Ali Mosleh , Ramin Ramezani

Quantifying the predictive uncertainty emerged as a possible solution to common challenges like overconfidence or lack of explainability and robustness of deep neural networks, albeit one that is often computationally expensive. Many…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-02-19 Steven Landgraf , Markus Hillemann , Theodor Kapler , Markus Ulrich

Classifiers are often tested on relatively small data sets, which should lead to uncertain performance metrics. Nevertheless, these metrics are usually taken at face value. We present an approach to quantify the uncertainty of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-05 Niklas Tötsch , Daniel Hoffmann

We propose a new approach for solving a class of discrete decision making problems under uncertainty with positive cost. This issue concerns multiple and diverse fields such as engineering, economics, artificial intelligence, cognitive…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-01-03 Steve N'Guyen , Clément Moulin-Frier , Jacques Droulez

We present a framework for generating multiple imputations for continuous data when the missing data mechanism is unknown. Imputations are generated from more than one imputation model in order to incorporate uncertainty regarding the…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-14 Juned Siddique , Ofer Harel , Catherine M. Crespi

The Best Estimate plus Uncertainty (BEPU) approach for nuclear systems modeling and simulation requires that the prediction uncertainty must be quantified in order to prove that the investigated design stays within acceptance criteria. A…

Computation · Statistics 2023-03-24 Ziyu Xie , Farah Alsafadi , Xu Wu

We study the problem of identifying the set of \emph{active} variables, termed in the literature as \emph{variable selection} or \emph{multiple hypothesis testing}, depending on the pursued criteria. For a general \emph{robust setting} of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-24 Eduard Belitser , Nurzhan Nurushev

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed to autonomously solve real-world tasks. A key ingredient for this is the LLM Function-Calling paradigm, a widely used approach for equipping LLMs with tool-use capabilities. However, an…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Zihuiwen Ye , Lukas Aichberger , Michael Kirchhof , Sinead Williamson , Luca Zappella , Yarin Gal , Arno Blaas , Adam Golinski

This paper introduces a comprehensive, multi-stage machine learning methodology that effectively integrates information systems and artificial intelligence to enhance decision-making processes within the domain of operations research. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-14 Nijat Mehdiyev , Maxim Majlatow , Peter Fettke

We gain robustness on the quantification of a risk measurement by accounting for all sources of uncertainties tainting the inputs of a computer code. We evaluate the maximum quantile over a class of distributions defined only by constraints…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-03 Jerome Stenger , Fabrice Gamboa , Merlin Keller , Bertrand Iooss

The inaccuracy of neural network models on inputs that do not stem from the training data distribution is both problematic and at times unrecognized. Model uncertainty estimation can address this issue, where uncertainty estimates are often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-14 Siddhartha Jain , Ge Liu , Jonas Mueller , David Gifford

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification and propose measures of total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty based on a known decomposition of (strictly) proper scoring rules, a specific type of loss function, into a divergence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to an ad-hoc operating point,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-06 Jiri Navratil , Benjamin Elder , Matthew Arnold , Soumya Ghosh , Prasanna Sattigeri

We consider the problem of optimally designing a system for repeated use under uncertainty. We develop a modeling framework that integrates design and operational phases, which are represented by a mixed-integer program and discounted-cost…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-03-25 Seth Brown , Saumya Sinha , Andrew J Schaefer

Increasingly high-stakes decisions are made using neural networks in order to make predictions. Specifically, meteorologists and hedge funds apply these techniques to time series data. When it comes to prediction, there are certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-14 Levente Foldesi , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

Image-based environment perception is an important component especially for driver assistance systems or autonomous driving. In this scope, modern neuronal networks are used to identify multiple objects as well as the according position and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Fabian Küppers

This paper addresses the problem of both actively searching and tracking multiple unknown dynamic objects in a known environment with multiple cooperative autonomous agents with partial observability. The tracking of a target ends when the…

OOD detection has become more pertinent with advances in network design and increased task complexity. Identifying which parts of the data a given network is misclassifying has become as valuable as the network's overall performance. We can…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-05 Rishi Singhal , Srinath Srinivasan
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