Related papers: Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up
We investigate the price of anarchy (PoA) in non-atomic congestion games when the total demand $T$ gets very large. First results in this direction have recently been obtained by \cite{Colini2016On, Colini2017WINE, Colini2017arxiv} for…
We examine statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years, finding techniques for dealing with incompleteness and unreliability of historical data. We introduce a novel approach to apply extreme value theory to…
Tail dependence refers to clustering of extreme events. In the context of financial risk management, the clustering of high-severity risks has a devastating effect on the well-being of firms and is thus of pivotal importance in risk…
We consider a discrete-time random walk on a line starting at $x_0\geq 0$ where a cost is incurred at each jump. We obtain an exact analytical formula for the distribution of the total cost of a trajectory until the process crosses the…
In the game-theoretic model war of attrition, players are subject to an explicit cost proportional to the duration of contests. We construct a model where the time cost is not explicitly given, but instead depends implicitly on the…
This paper evaluated the effects of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on traffic demand on the Metropolitan expressway. We constructed panel data for both passenger and freight vehicles' demand using longitudinal disaggregated…
Prolonged power outages debilitate the economy and threaten public health. Existing research is generally limited in its scope to a single event, an outage cause, or a region. Here, we provide one of the most comprehensive analyses of U.S.…
Ranking is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the human society. By clicking the web pages of Forbes, you may find all kinds of rankings, such as world's most powerful people, world's richest people, top-paid tennis stars, and so on and so forth.…
The size of large cliff failures may be described in several ways, for instance considering the horizontal eroded area at the cliff top and the maximum local retreat of the coastline. Field studies suggest that, for large failures, the…
There are many benefits and costs that come from people and firms clustering together in space. Agglomeration economies, in particular, are the manifestation of centripetal forces that make larger cities disproportionately more wealthy than…
The International Swimming Federation (FINA) uses a very simple points system with the aim to rank swimmers across all Olympic events. The points acquired is a function of the ratio of the recorded time and the current world record for that…
Power-law tails are ubiquitous in income distributions and in the energy distributions of diluted relativistic gases. We analyze the conceptual link between these two cases. In economic interactions fat tails arise because the richest…
Ocean rogue waves are large and suddenly appearing surface gravity waves, which may cause severe damage to ships and other maritime structures. Despite years of research, the exact origin of rogue waves is still disputed. Linear…
We study the relaxation dynamics of a financial market just after the occurrence of a crash by investigating the number of times the absolute value of an index return is exceeding a given threshold value. We show that the empirical…
Public transportation is a fundamental infrastructure for the daily mobility in cities. Although its capacity is prepared for the usual demand, congestion may rise when huge crowds concentrate in special events such as massive…
We introduce a stochastic model to explain a double power-law distribution which exhibits two different Paretian behaviors in the upper and the lower tail and widely exists in social and economic systems. The model incorporates fitness…
We say that a random variable is $light$-$tailed$ if moments of order $2+\epsilon$ are finite for some $\epsilon>0$; otherwise, we say that it is $heavy$-$tailed$. We study queueing networks that operate under the Max-Weight scheduling…
Overload-induced cascading failures can cause extreme disruptions in a wide range of networked systems, such as power grids, transportation networks, or financial systems. Empirical studies across domains report that the size of such…
Sports leagues consist of conferences subdivided into divisions. Teams play a number of games within their divisions and fewer games against teams in different divisions and conferences. Usually, a league structure remains stable from one…
We revisit the problem of influencing the sex ratio of a population by subjecting reproduction of each family to some stopping rule. As an easy consequence of the strong law of large numbers, no such modification is possible in the sense…