Related papers: Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up
In competitions involving many participants running many races the final rank is determined by the score of each participant, obtained by adding its ranks in each individual race. The "Statistical Curse of the Second Half Rank" is the…
Anthropogenic influences have been linked to tropical cyclone (TC) poleward migration, TC extreme precipitation, and an increased proportion of major hurricanes [1, 2, 3, 4]. Understanding past TC trends and variability is critical for…
This article investigates the influence of luck and strategic considerations on performance of teams participating in the M6 investment challenge. We find that there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the extreme Sharpe ratios…
Statistics of drawdowns (loss from the last local maximum to the next local minimum) plays an important role in risk assessment of investment strategies. As they incorporate higher ($>$ two) order correlations, they offer a better measure…
The importance of the global financial system cannot be exaggerated. When a large financial institution becomes problematic and is bailed out, that bank is often claimed as "too big to fail". On the other hand, to prevent bank's failure,…
Multi-round competitions often double or triple the points awarded in the final round, calling it a bonus, to maximize spectators' excitement. In a two-player competition with $n$ rounds, we aim to derive the optimal bonus size to maximize…
The existence of "Hot Hands" and "Streaks" in sports and gambling is hotly debated, but there is no uncertainty about the recent batting-average of the New York Times: it is now two-for-two in mangling and misunderstanding elementary…
Energy storage shifts energy from off-peak periods to on-peak periods. Unlike conventional generation, storage is duration-limited: the stored energy capacity constrains the duration over which it can supply power. To understand how these…
This paper presents a physical perspective on the human migration phenomenon claiming that human social behaviors are somehow but not completely inspired by nature. Human displacement or migration in the world is highly affected by…
As the last years have shown a massive growth within the field of electronic sports (eSports), several questions emerge, such as how much is it growing, and will it continue to grow? This research thesis sees this as its statement of…
We respond to the issues discussed by Farmer and Lillo (FL) related to our proposed approach to understanding the origin of power-law distributions in stock price fluctuations. First, we extend our previous analysis to 1000 US stocks and…
In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market.…
In econometrics, the Efficient Market Hypothesis posits that asset prices reflect all available information in the market. Several empirical investigations show that market efficiency drops when it undergoes extreme events. Many models for…
Why is the U.S. industry-level productivity dispersion countercyclical? Theoretically, we build a duopoly model in which heterogeneous R&D costs determine firms' optimal behaviors and the equilibrium technology gap after a negative profit…
We analyse circumstances in which bifurcation-driven jumps in AI systems are associated with emergent heavy-tailed outcome distributions. By analysing how a control parameter's random fluctuations near a catastrophic threshold generate…
Crashes have fascinated and baffled many canny observers of financial markets. In the strict orthodoxy of the efficient market theory, crashes must be due to sudden changes of the fundamental valuation of assets. However, detailed empirical…
Economic competition between humans leads to income inequality, but, so far, there has been little understanding of underlying quantitative mechanisms governing such a collective behavior. We analyze datasets of household income from 67…
The vast majority of travel takes place within cities. Recently, new data has become available which allows for the discovery of urban mobility patterns which differ from established results about long distance travel. Specifically, the…
A range of early studies have been conducted to illustrate human mobility patterns using different tracking data, such as dollar notes, cell phones and taxicabs. Here, we explore human mobility patterns based on massive tracking data of US…
Climate-driven flood risk increasingly necessitates managed retreat through government buyout programmes, yet empirical evidence documents substantial racial and economic disparities in programme implementation. Here we develop a…