Related papers: Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up
The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are…
This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth US$90 billion and representing…
Applying a modification of Extreme value Theory (thanks to a dual distribution technique by the authors on data over the past 2,500 years, we show that pandemics are extremely fat-tailed in terms of fatalities, with a marked potentially…
A {\em leader election} algorithm is an elimination process that divides recursively into tow subgroups an initial group of n items, eliminates one subgroup and continues the procedure until a subgroup is of size 1. In this paper the biased…
The thresholding of time series of activity or intensity is frequently used to define and differentiate events. This is either implicit, for example due to resolution limits, or explicit, in order to filter certain small scale physics from…
The random initialization of weights of a multilayer perceptron makes it possible to model its training process as a Las Vegas algorithm, i.e. a randomized algorithm which stops when some required training error is obtained, and whose…
This paper demonstrates the additive and multiplicative version of a long-run law of unexpected shocks for any economic variable. We derive these long-run laws by the martingale theory without relying on the stationary and ergodic…
In its initial form, the expensive son hypothesis postulates that sons from male-biased sexually dimorphic species require more food during growth than daughters, which ultimately incur fitness costs for mothers predominantly producing and…
Growth rate of real GDP per capita, GDPpc, is represented as a sum of two components, a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to population change. The economic trend is modelled by an inverse function of GDPpc…
We introduce a new statistical tool (the TP-statistic and TE-statistic) designed specifically to compare the behavior of the sample tail of distributions with power-law and exponential tails as a function of the lower threshold u. One…
Creating a study program for optimal academic completion is a complex assignment. Especially programs in the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics field are known for extended completion time as well as high drop-out rates…
The distribution of income and wealth in developed economies exhibits a robust two-class structure: an exponential (Boltzmann--Gibbs) bulk covering $\sim\!97\%$ of the population, and a power-law (Pareto) tail in the upper $\sim\!3\%$. We…
The outcome of some football matches has benefited both teams at the expense of a third team because head-to-head results were used for breaking ties. Inspired by these examples, our mathematical analysis identifies all possible collusion…
This paper studies the links between the descriptions of macroeconomic variables and statistical moments of market trade, price, and return. The randomness of market trade values and volumes during the averaging interval {\Delta} results in…
During any unique crisis, panic sell-off leads to a massive stock market crash that may continue for more than a day, termed as mainshock. The effect of a mainshock in the form of aftershocks can be felt throughout the recovery phase of…
While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we…
We study cross-country GDP losses due to financial crises in terms of frequency (number of loss events per period) and severity (loss per occurrence). We perform the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) to estimate a multi-country aggregate GDP…
Extreme economic outcomes are not shaped by tails alone. They are also shaped by unequal access to opportunities. This paper develops a theory of heterogeneous extremes by taking the distribution of opportunity access as the object of…
Cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects know no geographical limits, overruns are a global phenomenon. Nevertheless, the size of cost overruns varies with location. In the Netherlands, cost overruns appear to be smaller compared…
The Olympic 500 meter sprint competition is the `Formula One event' of speed skating, and is watched by millions of television viewers. A draw decides who should start in inner lane and who in outer lane. Many skaters dread the last inner…