Related papers: Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up
The "Olympic Agenda 2020" stresses the urgency of measuring the impact of the Olympic Games on host cities in the face of declining bids. This paper presents the Hosting the Olympics Influence Evaluation Model (HOIEM) to assess these…
Extreme events are by nature rare and difficult to predict, yet are often much more important than frequent, typical events. An interesting counterpoint to the prediction of such events is their retrodiction -- given a process in an outlier…
The recent availability of electronic datasets containing large volumes of communication data has made it possible to study human behavior on a larger scale than ever before. From this, it has been discovered that across a diverse range of…
The situation surrounding the Olympiads is paradoxical. On the one hand, considerable resources are spent on the Olympiads. On the other hand, there are widespread arguments about the harm of the Olympiads, often very strange ones. For…
One of the first steps to understand and forecast economic downturns is identifying their frequency distribution, but it remains uncertain. This problem is common in phenomena displaying power-law-like distributions. Power laws play a…
We study {\em bottleneck routing games} where the social cost is determined by the worst congestion on any edge in the network. In the literature, bottleneck games assume player utility costs determined by the worst congested edge in their…
We study bottleneck routing games where the social cost is determined by the worst congestion on any edge in the network. Bottleneck games have been studied in the literature by having the player's utility costs to be determined by the…
In several recent publications, Bettencourt, West and collaborators claim that properties of cities such as gross economic production, personal income, numbers of patents filed, number of crimes committed, etc., show super-linear…
We study statistics of the knockout tournament, where only the winner of a fixture progresses to the next. We assign a real number called competitiveness to each contestant and find that the resulting distribution of prize money follows a…
Investigations of inverse statistics (a concept borrowed from turbulence) in stock markets, exemplified with filtered Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, have uncovered a novel stylized fact that the distribution of exit time…
Information technologies today can inform each of us about the best alternatives for shortest paths from origins to destinations, but they do not contain incentives or alternatives that manage the information efficiently to get collective…
In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with…
Greece constitutes a coastal country with a lot of geomorphologic, climatic, cultural and historic peculiarities favoring the development of many aspects of tourism. Within this framework, this article examines what are the effects of…
This short note is intended as a "Letter to the Editor" Perspective in order that it serves as a contribution, in view of reaching the physics community caring about rare events and scaling laws and unexpected findings, on a domain of wide…
Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early…
This paper addresses the statistical properties of time series driven by rational bubbles a la Blanchard and Watson (1982), corresponding to multiplicative maps, whose study has recently be revived recently in physics as a mechanism of…
Oil prices above $100/barrel values have proven unaffordable for the world economy, while lower prices have proven unaffordable for unconventional oil sources, resulting in a frantic price swing since 2007-2008. We identify and combine for…
We introduce an evolutionary game with feedback between perception and reality, which we call the reality game. It is a game of chance in which the probabilities for different objective outcomes (e.g., heads or tails in a coin toss) depend…
Predicting the outcome of sports events is a hard task. We quantify this difficulty with a coefficient that measures the distance between the observed final results of sports leagues and idealized perfectly balanced competitions in terms of…
In many applied fields, the prediction of more severe events than those already recorded is crucial for safeguarding against potential future calamities. What-if analyses, which evaluate hypothetical scenarios up to the worst-case event,…