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Related papers: A modified age-structured SIR model for COVID-19 t…

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This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-08 Frank G Ball , Edward S Knock , Philip D O'Neill

We study vaccine budget-sharing strategies in the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model given a structured community network to investigate the benefit of sharing vaccine across communities. The network studied comprises two…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-11-14 Felippe Alves , David Saad

A number of models in mathematical epidemiology have been developed to account for control measures such as vaccination or quarantine. However, COVID-19 has brought unprecedented social distancing measures, with a challenge on how to…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-07 Magdalena Djordjevic , Andjela Rodic , Igor Salom , Dusan Zigic , Ognjen Milicevic , Bojana Ilic , Marko Djordjevic

We present an early version of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) mathematical model based on partial differential equations coupled with a heterogeneous diffusion model. The model describes the spatio-temporal spread…

The infections and fatalities due to SARS-CoV-2 virus for cases specific to India have been studied using a deterministic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-dead (SEIRD) compartmental model. One of the most significant epidemiological…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-09 Vishwajeet Jha

The main focus of this chapter is on public health control strategies which are currently the main way to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic. We introduce and compare compartmental models of increasing complexity for COVID-19 transmission to…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-12-14 Redouane Qesmi , Aayah Hammoumi

In this article, we construct an age-structured model for COVID-19 with vaccination and analyze it from multiple perspectives. We derive the unique disease-free equilibrium point and the basic reproduction number $ \mathscr{R}_0 $, then we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-07-09 Ruiyang Zhou , Fengying Wei

The SIR-compartment model is among the simplest models that describe the spread of a disease through a population. The model makes the unrealistic assumption that the population through which the disease is spreading is well-mixed. Although…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-11-16 Ryan Wilkinson , Marcus Roper

Graph convolutional neural networks (GCNs) have shown tremendous promise in addressing data-intensive challenges in recent years. In particular, some attempts have been made to improve predictions of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-07 Petr Kisselev , Padmanabhan Seshaiyer

During the COVID-19 pandemic, we witnessed a disproportionate infection rate among marginalized and low-income groups. Despite empirical evidence suggesting that structural inequalities in society contribute to health disparities, there has…

Since December 2019, A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been breaking out in China, which can cause respiratory diseases and severe pneumonia. Mathematical and empirical models relying on the epidemic situation scale for forecasting…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-01-05 Jingyuan Wang , Xin Lin , Yuxi Liu , Qilegeri , Kai Feng , Hui Lin

We consider a global (location independent) model of pandemic growth which generalizes the SIR model to accommodate important features of the COVID-19 pandemic, notably the implementation of pandemic reduction measures. This "SHIR" model is…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-30 T. Barnes

The role of epidemiological models is crucial for informing public health officials during a public health emergency, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, traditional epidemiological models fail to capture the time-varying effects of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-17 Adam Spannaus , Theodore Papamarkou , Samantha Erwin , J. Blair Christian

In this work, we use a new approach to study the spread of an infectious disease. Indeed, we study a SIR epidemic model with variable infectivity, where the individuals are distributed over a compact subset $D$ of $\R^d$. We define…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Armand Kanga , Etienne Pardoux

This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-11 Cem Cakmakli , Yasin Simsek

Interaction-driven modeling of diseases over real-world contact data has been shown to promote the understanding of the spread of diseases in communities. This temporal modeling follows the path-preserving order and timing of the contacts,…

Applications · Statistics 2023-07-13 Yanir Marmor , Alex Abbey , Yuval Shahar , Osnat Mokryn

We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-05-14 Joel Miller , Bahman Davoudi , Rafael Meza , Anja Slim , Babak Pourbohloul

The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients of COVID-19 epidemic, including the effect of demographic…

The mobility patterns of individuals in China during the early outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic exhibit reversible changes -- in many regions, the mobility first decreased significantly and later restored. Based on this observation, here…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-10-25 Xincheng Shu , Zhongyuan Ruan

Here we propose and implement a generalized mathematical model to find the time evolution of population in infectious diseases and apply the model to study the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Our model at the core is a non-local generalization of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-01 Saumyak Mukherjee , Sayantan Mondal , Biman Bagchi