Related papers: A modified age-structured SIR model for COVID-19 t…
This paper is an exploratory study of two epidemiological questions on a worldwide basis. How fast is the disease spreading? Are the restrictions (especially mobility restrictions) for people bring the expected effect? To answer the first…
The Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model is one of the standard models of disease spreading. Here we analyse an extended SEIR model that accounts for asymptomatic carriers, believed to play an important role…
Contacts' temporal ordering and dynamics are crucial for understanding the transmission of infectious diseases. We introduce an interaction-driven model of an airborne disease over contact networks. We demonstrate our interaction-driven…
The presence of a large number of infected individuals with few or no symptoms is an important epidemiological difficulty and the main mathematical feature of COVID-19. The A-SIR model, i.e. a SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model with a…
The rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control its…
In this research paper we modify a classical SIR model to better adapt to the dynamics of COVID-19, that is we propose the heterogeneous SQAIRD model where COVID-19 spreads over a population of economic agents, namely: the elderly, adults…
In this work, the spread of a contagious disease on a society where the individuals may take precautions is modeled. The primary assumption is that the infected individuals transmit the infection to the susceptible members of the community…
We have developed a globally applicable diagnostic Covid-19 model by augmenting the classical SIR epidemiological model with a neural network module. Our model does not rely upon previous epidemics like SARS/MERS and all parameters are…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…
Most models of epidemic spread, including many designed specifically for COVID-19, implicitly assume mass-action contact patterns and undirected contact networks, meaning that the individuals most likely to spread the disease are also the…
This work covers the analysis of the COVID 19 spread in different countries and dealing the main feature of COVID 19 growth, which is the spread due to the social-contact structure, which is governed by the parameter \b{eta}. The dependency…
Since COVID-19 vaccines became available, no studies have quantified how different disaster evacuation strategies can mitigate pandemic risks in shelters. Therefore, we applied an age-structured epidemiological model, known as the…
We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a…
The COVID-19 pandemic has been a great catastrophe that upended human lives and caused millions of deaths all over the world. The rapid spread of the virus, with its early-stage exponential growth and subsequent 'waves', caught many medical…
The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that…
Time-varying network topologies can deeply influence dynamical processes mediated by them. Memory effects in the pattern of interactions among individuals are also known to affect how diffusive and spreading phenomena take place. In this…
By characterising the time evolution of COVID-19 in term of its "velocity" (log of the new cases per day) and its rate of variation, or "acceleration", we show that in many countries there has been a deceleration even before lockdowns were…
Governments around the world have implemented preventive measures against the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). In this study, we consider a multivariate discrete-time Markov model to analyze the propagation of COVID-19 across…
COVID-19 is not a universal killer. We study the spread of COVID-19 at the county level for the United States up until the 15$^{th}$ of August, 2020. We show that the prevalence of the disease and the death rate are correlated with the…
A probabilistic approach to the epidemic evolution on realistic social-contact networks allows for characteristic differences among subjects, including the individual number and structure of social contacts, and the heterogeneity of the…