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In this paper, we consider a discrete-time stochastic SIR model, where the transmission rate and the true number of infectious individuals are random and unobservable. An advantage of this model is that it permits us to account for random…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-01-30 Katia Colaneri , Camilla Damian , Rüdiger Frey

The process of diffusion is the most elementary stochastic transport process. Brownian motion, the representative model of diffusion, played a important role in the advancement of scientific fields such as physics, chemistry, biology and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-08-11 Alexandre Bovet

We present a simple model for the spread of an infection that incorporates spatial variability in population density. Starting from first principle considerations, we explore how a novel PDE with state-dependent diffusion can be obtained.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-10-28 A. Vaziry , T. Kolokolnikov , P. G. Kevrekidis

We propose a lattice dynamical system that arises in a discrete diffusive two-group epidemic model with latency in a patchy environment. The model considers the SIS form and latency of the disease in group 1, while the SIR form without…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-10-21 Chufen Wu , Yonghui Xia , Jianshe Yu

We propose a model for demixing of two species by assuming a density-dependent effective diffusion coefficient of the particles. Both sorts of microswimmers diffuse as active overdamped Brownian particles with a noise intensity that is…

Biological Physics · Physics 2021-02-17 Lutz Schimansky-Geier , Benjamin Lindner , Sebastian Milster , Alexander B. Neiman

The non-equilibrium phase transition in models for epidemic spreading with long-range infections in combination with incubation times is investigated by field-theoretical and numerical methods. Here the spreading process is modelled by…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Julian Adamek , Michael Keller , Arne Senftleben , Haye Hinrichsen

We show that the basic reproduction number of an SIS patch model with standard incidence is either strictly decreasing and strictly convex with respect to the diffusion coefficient of infected subpopulation if the patch reproduction numbers…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-01-03 Daozhou Gao , Chao-Ping Dong

The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is the cornerstone of epidemiological models. However, this specification depends on two parameters only, which implies a lack of flexibility and the difficulty to replicate the volatile…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-17 Christian Gourieroux , Yang Lu

We are interested in a variation of the SIR (Susceptible/Infected/Recovered) dynamics on the complete graph, in which infected individuals may only spread to neighboring susceptible individuals at fixed rate $\lambda>0$ while recovered…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-19 Igor Kortchemski

We investigate a class of continuum models for the motion of a two-dimensional biological group under the influence of nonlocal social interactions. The dynamics may be uniquely decomposed into incompressible motion and potential motion.…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2007-05-23 C. M. Topaz , A. L. Bertozzi

This paper investigates asymptotic behavior of a stochastic SIR epidemic model, which is a system with degenerate diffusion. It gives sufficient conditions that are very close to the necessary conditions for the permanence. In addition,…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-24 N. T. Dieu , D. H. Nguyen , N. H. Du , G. Yin

We investigate the role of migration patterns on the spread of epidemics in complex networks. We enhance the SIS-diffusion model on metapopulations to a nonlinear diffusion. Specifically, individuals move randomly over the network but at a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-16 Jordi Ripoll , Albert Avinyó , Marta Pellicer , Joan Saldaña

We focus on the modeling and simulation of an infectious disease spreading in a medium size population occupying a confined environment, such as an airport terminal, for short periods of time. Because of the size of the crowd and venue, we…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-07-27 Daewa Kim , Annalisa Quaini

We study the spreading of an infection within an SIS epidemiological model on a network. Susceptible agents are given the opportunity of breaking their links with infected agents. Broken links are either permanently removed or reconnected…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-11-07 Damian H. Zanette , Sebastian Risau Gusman

In the standard Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) models, the peak of infected individuals coincides with the in ection point of removed individuals. Nevertheless, a survey based on the data…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-09-26 Ayse Peker Dobie , Ali Demirci , Ayse Humeyra Bilge , Semra Ahmetolan

Between pandemics, the influenza virus exhibits periods of incremental evolution via a process known as antigenic drift. This process gives rise to a sequence of strains of the pathogen that are continuously replaced by newer strains,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-08-18 Adam Griffin , Simon E. F. Spencer , Gareth O. Roberts

We consider an epidemiological model that includes waning and boosting of immunity. Assuming that repeated exposure to the pathogen fully restores immunity, we derive an SIRS-type model with discrete and distributed delays. First we prove…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-06-14 Maria Vittoria Barbarossa , Monika Polner , Gergely Röst

A class of stochastic vector-borne infectious disease models is derived and studied. The class type is determined by a general nonlinear incidence rate of the disease. The disease spreads in a highly random environment with variability from…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-05 Divine Wanduku

We propose two SIR models which incorporate sociological behavior of groups of individuals. It is these differences in behaviors which impose different infection rates on the individual susceptible populations, rather than biological…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-07-26 Robert F. Allen , Katherine Heller , Matthew A. Pons

We investigate a diffusive, stage-structured epidemic model with the maturation delay and freely-moving delay. Choosing delays and diffusive rates as bifurcation parameters, the only possible way to destabilize the endemic equilibrium is…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-05-25 Yanfei Du , Ben Niu , Junjie Wei