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We numerically study the dynamics of the SIR disease model on small-world networks by using a large-deviation approach. This allows us to obtain the probability density function of the total fraction of infected nodes and of the maximum…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-09-01 Yannick Feld , Alexander K. Hartmann

Our study is based on an epidemiological compartmental model, the SIRS model. In the SIRS model, each individual is in one of the states susceptible (S), infected(I) or recovered (R), depending on its state of health. In compartment R, an…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-05-10 Michael Bestehorn , Thomas M. Michelitsch

Many disease models focus on characterizing the underlying transmission mechanism but make simple, possibly naive assumptions about how infections are reported. In this note, we use a simple deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR)…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-11-28 Sang Woo Park , Benjamin M. Bolker

To study the influence of the moving front of the infected interval and the spatial movement of individuals on the spreading or vanishing of infectious disease, we consider a nonlocal SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible)…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2023-01-31 Yachun Tong , Inkyung Ahn , Zhigui Lin

Understanding the processes that give rise to quantitative measurements associated with molecular sequence data remains an important issue in statistical phylogenetics. Examples of such measurements include geographic coordinates in the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-12-31 Mandev S. Gill , Lam Si Tung Ho , Guy Baele , Philippe Lemey , Marc A. Suchard

We consider the edge-based compartmental models for infectious disease spread introduced in Part I. These models allow us to consider standard SIR diseases spreading in random populations. In this paper we show how to handle deviations of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-09-03 Joel C. Miller , Erik M. Volz

A random walk scheme, consisting of alternating phases of regular Brownian motion and L\'evy walks, is proposed as a model for run-and-tumble bacterial motion. Within the continuous-time random walk approach we obtain the long-time and…

Biological Physics · Physics 2017-01-26 Felix Thiel , Lutz Schimansky-Geier , Igor M. Sokolov

The last decade saw the advent of increasingly realistic epidemic models that leverage on the availability of highly detailed census and human mobility data. Data-driven models aim at a granularity down to the level of households or single…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2011-08-10 Nicola Perra , Duygu Balcan , Bruno Gonçalves , Alessandro Vespignani

We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-03-07 Vitaly Belik , Theo Geisel , Dirk Brockmann

We study epidemic outbreaks on random Delaunay triangulations by applying Asynchronous SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model kinetic Monte Carlo dynamics coupled to lattices extracted from the triangulations. In order to investigate the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-01-31 T. F. A. Alves , G. A. Alves , A. Macedo-Filho , R. S. Ferreira

We study an epidemic propagation between $M$ population centra. The novelty of the model is in analyzing the migration of host (remaining in the same centre) and guest (migrated to another centre) populations separately. Even in the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-01-28 Igor Sazonov , Mark Kelbert , Michael B. Gravenor

Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by…

Physics and Society · Physics 2007-05-23 Erik Volz

We consider a simple stochastic model for the spread of a disease caused by two virus strains in a closed homogeneously mixing population of size N. The spread of each strain in the absence of the other one is described by the stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-13 Fabio Lopes , Malwina Luczak

Epidemic spreading often occurs in spatially heterogeneous environments, yet how quenched heterogeneity reshapes its onset and critical dynamics remains poorly understood. The diffusive epidemic process, a minimal reaction-diffusion model…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-03-24 Valentin Anfray , Hong-Yan Shih

The diffusive epidemic process is a paradigmatic example of an absorbing state phase transition in which healthy and infected individuals spread with different diffusion constants. Using stochastic activity spreading simulations in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-03-02 Borislav Polovnikov , Patrick Wilke , Erwin Frey

We study the dynamics of secondary infections on networks, in which only the individuals currently carrying a certain primary infection are susceptible to the secondary infection. In the limit of large sparse networks, the model is mapped…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-23 Sam Moore , Peter Mörters , Tim Rogers

We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-05-08 E. Ben-Naim , P. L. Krapivsky

The focus of this article is on the dynamics of a new susceptible-infected model which consists of a susceptible group ($S$) and two different infectious groups ($I_1$ and $I_2$). Once infected, an individual becomes a member of one of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-01 Ayse Peker-Dobie , Semra Ahmetolan , Ayse Humeyra Bilge , Ali Demirci

The infection dynamics of a population under stationary isolation conditions is modeled. It is underlined that the stationary character of the isolation measures can be expected to imply that an effective SIR model with constant parameters…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-10-19 Alejandro Cabo Montes de Oca , Nana Geraldine Cabo Bizet

Healthy and sick individuals (A and B particles) diffuse independently with diffusion constants D_A and D_B. Sick individuals upon encounter infect healthy ones (at rate k), but may also spontaneously recover (at rate 1/\tau). The…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-25 F. van Wijland , K. Oerding , H. J. Hilhorst