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We extend the $N$ branching Brownian motions model of population invasion to higher-order asexual reproduction. Increasing reproduction order leads to qualitative changes: invasion fronts generically cease to exist beyond binary…
We introduce an epidemic model with varying infectivity and general exposed and infectious periods, where the infectivity of each individual is a random function of the elapsed time since infection, those function being i.i.d. for the…
Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…
We consider an epidemic model of SIR type set on a homogeneous tree and investigate the spreading properties of the epidemic as a function of the degree of the tree, the intrinsic basic reproduction number and the strength of the…
We give a probabilistic representation of a one-dimensional diffusion equation where the solution is discontinuous at $0$ with a jump proportional to its flux. This kind of interface condition is usually seen as a semi-permeable barrier.…
We consider populations with time-varying growth rates living in sinks. Each population, when isolated, would become extinct. Dispersal-induced growth (DIG) occurs when the populations are able to persist and grow exponentially when…
In this work, the aim is to study the spread of a contagious disease and information on a multilayer social system. The main idea is to find a criterion under which the adoption of the spreading information blocks or suppresses the epidemic…
A model for anomalous transport of tracer particles diffusing in complex media in two dimensions is proposed. The model takes into account the characteristics of persistent motion that active bath transfer to the tracer, thus the model…
Diffusion through semipermeable structures arises in a wide range of processes in the physical and life sciences. Examples at the microscopic level range from artificial membranes for reverse osmosis to lipid bilayers regulating molecular…
The main aim of the work is to present a general class of two time scales discrete-time epidemic models. In the proposed framework the disease dynamics is considered to act on a slower time scale than a second different process that could…
In this work we propose a model to describe the statistical fluctuations of the self-driven objects (species A) walking against an opposite crowd (species B) in order to simulate the regime characterized by stop-and-go waves in the context…
Interaction patterns among individuals play vital roles in spreading infectious diseases. Understanding these patterns and integrating their impact in modeling diffusion dynamics of infectious diseases are important for epidemiological…
This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible$\to$infective$\to$removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within `households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal…
We explore the emergence of persistent infection in a patch of population, where the disease progression of the individuals is given by the SIRS model and an individual becomes infected on contact with another infected individual. We…
We study infection spread among biased random walks on $\mathbb{Z}^{d}$. The random walks move independently and an infected particle is placed at the origin at time zero. Infection spreads instantaneously when particles share the same site…
In Part 1, we introduced a stochastic model of an infectious disease, based on the BDI (birth and death with immigration) process. We showed that random processes defined by this model can capture the essence of the stochastic, often…
We exhibit a scaling law for the critical SIS stochastic epidemic: If at time 0 the population consists of square root N infected and N - square root N susceptible individuals, then when time and number currently infected are both scaled by…
Interactions between commuting individuals can lead to large-scale spreading of rumors, ideas, or disease, even though the commuters have no net displacement. The emergent dynamics depend crucially on the commuting distribution of a…
We introduce non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model inspired by the characteristics of the COVID-19, by considering discrete- and continuous-time versions. The incubation period, delayed infectiousness and the distribution of the…