Related papers: Heterogeneity and Superspreading Effect on Herd Im…
In this paper we elaborate on homogeneous and heterogeneous SIR-type epidemiological models. We find an unexpected correspondence between the epidemic trajectory of a transmissible disease in a homogeneous SIR-type model and radial null…
During an epidemic outbreak, individuals often modify their behavior in response to global prevalence cues, using spatially mediated adaptations such as reduced mobility or transmission range. In this work, we investigate the impact of…
The expected number of secondary infections arising from each index case, referred to as the reproduction or $R$ number, is a vital summary statistic for understanding and managing epidemic diseases. There are many methods for estimating…
A well-known characteristic of pandemics such as COVID-19 is the high level of transmission heterogeneity in the infection spread: not all infected individuals spread the disease at the same rate and some individuals (superspreaders) are…
In this article, we investigate the importance of demographic and contact patterns in determining the spread of COVID-19 and to the effectiveness of social distancing policies. We investigate these questions proposing an augmented…
The spread of sexually transmitted diseases (e.g. Chlamydia, Syphilis, Gonorrhea, HIV) across populations is a major concern for scientists and health agencies. In this context, both data collection on sexual contact networks and the…
COVID-19 pandemic has been raging all around the world for almost a year now, as of November 1, 2020. In this paper, we try to analyze the variation of the COVID-19 pandemic in different countries in the light of some modifications to the…
One of the famous results of network science states that networks with heterogeneous connectivity are more susceptible to epidemic spreading than their more homogeneous counterparts. In particular, in networks of identical nodes it has been…
We explore the emergence of persistent infection in a patch of population, where the disease progression of the individuals is given by the SIRS model and an individual becomes infected on contact with another infected individual. We…
In this paper we conduct a simulation study of the spread of an epidemic like COVID-19 with temporary immunity on finite spatial and non-spatial network models. In particular, we assume that an epidemic spreads stochastically on a…
We performed a thorough sensitivity analysis of the herd immunity threshold for discrete-time SIR compartmental models with a static network structure. We find unexpectedly that these models violate classical intuition which holds that the…
Heterogeneity is an important property of any population experiencing a disease. Here we apply general methods of the theory of heterogeneous populations to the simplest mathematical models in epidemiology. In particular, an SIR…
Population heterogeneity is a key factor in epidemic dynamics, influencing both transmission and final epidemic size. While heterogeneity is often modelled through age structure, spatial location, or contact patterns, differences in host…
Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…
We investigate the dynamics of a simple epidemiological model for the invasion by a pathogen strain of a population where another strain circulates. We assume that reinfection by the same strain is possible but occurs at a reduced rate due…
We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a…
Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for a disease spread in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is…
We study a well mixed SIR epidemic model with heterogeneous susceptibility and infectivity, allowing for an arbitrary joint distribution of these traits. Using an exact final size formulation and a branching process approximation for early…
In this study, we analyze the effectiveness of measures aimed at finding and isolating infected individuals to contain epidemics like COVID-19, as the suppression induced over the effective reproduction number. We develop a mathematical…
We investigate the spread of diseases, computer viruses or information on complex networks and also immunization strategies to prevent or control the spread. When an entire population cannot be immunized and the effect of immunization is…