Related papers: Heterogeneity and Superspreading Effect on Herd Im…
Investigations of a possible connection between population density and the propagation and magnitude of epidemics have so far led to mixed and unconvincing results. There are three reasons for that. (i) Previous studies did not focus on the…
I employ a simple mathematical model of an epidemic process to evaluate how four basic quantities: the reproduction number (R), the numbers of sensitive (S) and infectious individuals(I), and total community size (N) affect strategies to…
Recent empirical observations suggest a heterogeneous nature of human activities. The heavy-tailed inter-event time distribution at population level is well accepted, while whether the individual acts in a heterogeneous way is still under…
The process of infection of a host is complex, influenced by factors such as microbial variation within and between hosts as well as differences in dose across hosts. This study uses dose-response and within-host microbial infection models…
Most infectious diseases including more than half of known human pathogens are not restricted to just one host, yet much of the mathematical modeling of infections has been limited to a single species. We investigate consequences of a…
Motivated by massive outbreaks of COVID-19 that occurred even in populations with high vaccine uptake, we propose a novel multi-population temporal network model for the spread of recurrent epidemic diseases. We study the effect of human…
Optimal strategies for epidemic containment are focused on dismantling the contact network through effective immunization with minimal costs. However, network fragmentation is seldom accessible in practice and may present extreme side…
Using a simple economic model in which social-distancing reduces contagion, we study the implications of waning immunity for the epidemiological dynamics and social activity. If immunity wanes, we find that COVID-19 likely becomes endemic…
We study a multi-type SIR epidemic process among a heterogeneous population that interacts through a network. When we base social contact on a random graph with given vertex degrees, we give limit theorems on the fraction of infected…
Working in the multi-type Galton-Watson branching-process framework we analyse the spread of a pandemic via a general multi-type random contact graph. Our model consists of several communities, and takes, as input, parameters that outline…
COVID-19 will be a continuous threat to human population despite having a few vaccines at hand until we reach the endemic state through natural herd immunity and total immunization through universal vaccination. However, the vaccine acts as…
The current COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have highlighted the close and delicate relationship between a country's public health and economic health. Macroeconomic models that use preexisting epidemic models to calculate the…
We study the SIR model of epidemics on positively correlated heterogeneous networks with population variability, and explore the dependence of the final outbreak size on the network heterogeneity strength and basic reproduction number $R_0$…
Heterogeneity of population is a key factor in modeling the transmission of disease among the population and has huge impact on the outcome of the transmission. In order to investigate the decision making process in the heterogeneous mixing…
Understanding waning of vaccine-induced protection is important for both immunology and public health. Population heterogeneities in underlying (pre-vaccination) susceptibility and vaccine response can cause measured vaccine effectiveness…
Accurate identification of effective epidemic threshold is essential for understanding epidemic dynamics on complex networks. The existing studies on the effective epidemic threshold of the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model generally…
Changing environmental conditions can significantly affect the dynamics of disease spread. These changes may arise naturally or result from human interventions; in the latter case, lockdown measures that lead to abrupt but temporary…
Recent studies have demonstrated that the allocation of individual resources has a significant influence on the dynamics of epidemic spreading. In the real scenario, individuals have a different level of awareness for self-protection when…
In epidemic modeling, the term infection strength indicates the ratio of infection rate and cure rate. If the infection strength is higher than a certain threshold -- which we define as the epidemic threshold - then the epidemic spreads…
This is a pedagogical paper on estimating the number of people that can be infected by one infectious person during an epidemic outbreak, known as the reproduction number. Knowing the number is crucial for developing policy responses. There…