Related papers: A Joint Spatial Conditional Auto-Regressive Model …
Conditional auto-regressive (CAR) distributions are widely used to induce spatial dependence in the geographic analysis of areal data. These distributions establish multivariate dependence networks by defining conditional relationships…
We present a new joint longitudinal and survival model aimed at estimating the association between the risk of an event and the change in and history of a biomarker that is repeatedly measured over time. We use cubic B-splines models for…
The past decade has seen tremendous progress in the development of biomedical agents that are effective as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention. To expand the choice of products and delivery methods, new medications and…
Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective intervention for preventing HIV transmission, but high cost and uneven uptake raise challenges for resource allocation. While spillover effects, wherein PrEP use in one group reduces…
Relative survival represents the preferred framework for the analysis of population cancer survival data. The aim is to model the survival probability associated to cancer in the absence of information about the cause of death. Recent data…
The spread of sexually transmitted diseases (e.g. Chlamydia, Syphilis, Gonorrhea, HIV) across populations is a major concern for scientists and health agencies. In this context, both data collection on sexual contact networks and the…
Pathogen deep-sequencing is an increasingly routinely used technology in infectious disease surveillance. We present a semi-parametric Bayesian Poisson model to exploit these emerging data for inferring infectious disease transmission flows…
Accurate epidemic forecasting is crucial for public health response, resource allocation, and outbreak intervention, but remains difficult with sparse, noisy, and highly non-stationary data. Because epidemics unfold across interacting…
HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) drastically reduces the risk of HIV infection if taken as prescribed, providing almost perfect protection even during unprotected sexual intercourse. Although this has been transformative in reducing new…
Objective: The reservoir of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) latently infected cells is the major obstacle for eradication of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Due to the noisy environment and multiple influencing factors in the…
Joint modelling of longitudinal observations and event times continues to remain a topic of considerable interest in biomedical research. For example, in HIV studies, the longitudinal bio-marker such as CD4 cell count in a patient's blood…
Recently, a long-term model of HIV infection dynamics was developed to describe the entire time course of the disease. It consists of a large system of ODEs with many parameters, and is expensive to simulate. In the current paper, this…
Mathematical modeling of biological systems is crucial to effectively and efficiently developing treatments for medical conditions that plague humanity. Often, systems of ordinary differential equations are a traditional tool used to…
Men who have sex with men (MSM) remain disproportionately affected by HIV, yet optimizing Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) distribution remains a public health challenge. Current guidelines and most modelling studies do not incorporate…
Retaining persons living with HIV (PLWH) in medical care is paramount to preventing new transmissions of the virus and allowing PLWH to live normal and healthy lifespans. Maintaining regular appointments with an HIV provider and taking…
A target to eliminate Human Immuno-deficiency Virus (HIV) transmission in England by 2030 was set in early 2019. Estimates of recent trends in HIV prevalence, particularly the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV, by exposure group,…
These notes describe stochastic epidemics in a homogenous community. Our main concern is stochastic compartmental models (i.e. models where each individual belongs to a compartment, which stands for its status regarding the epidemic under…
Many important questions in infectious disease epidemiology involve the effects of covariates (e.g., age or vaccination status) on infectiousness and susceptibility, which can be measured in studies of transmission in households or other…
Time elapsed till an event of interest is often modeled using the survival analysis methodology, which estimates a survival score based on the input features. There is a resurgence of interest in developing more accurate prediction models…
Crime events are known to reveal spatio-temporal patterns, which can be used for predictive modeling and subsequent decision support. While the focus has hitherto been placed on areas with high population density, we address the challenging…