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We study the relation between different social behaviors and the onset of epidemics in a model for the dynamics of sexual transmitted diseases. The model considers the society as a system of individual sexuated agents that can be organized…
Auxiliary data sources have become increasingly important in epidemiological surveillance, as they are often available at a finer spatial and temporal resolution, larger coverage, and lower latency than traditional surveillance signals. We…
In Fall 2020, several European countries reported rapid increases in COVID-19 cases along with growing estimates of the effective reproduction rates. Such an acceleration in epidemic spread is usually attributed to time-dependent effects,…
We use a cellular automata model to study the evolution of HIV infection and the onset of AIDS. The model takes into account the global features of the immune response to any pathogen, the fast mutation rate of the HIV and a fair amount of…
Spatio-temporal epidemic forecasting is critical for public health management, yet existing methods often struggle with insensitivity to weak epidemic signals, over-simplified spatial relations, and unstable parameter estimation. To address…
Background: After a decade of a treatment as prevention (TasP) strategy based on progressive HIV testing scale-up and earlier treatment, a reduction in the estimated number of new infections in men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) in England had…
Our recent experience with the COVID-19 pandemic amply shows that spatial effects like the mobility of agents and average interpersonal distance, together with the adaptation of agents, are very important in deciding the outcome of epidemic…
The transmission through contacts among MSM (men who have sex with men) is one of the dominating contributors to HIV prevalence in industrialized countries. In Amsterdam, the capital of the Netherlands, the MSM risk group has been traced…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
This document is the Part III of the book 'Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference' edited by Tom Britton and Etienne Pardoux. Plan of the chapter: 1) Random Graphs, 2) The Reproduction Number R0, 3) SIR Epidemics on Configuration Model…
Introduction: The value of integrating federal HIV services data with HIV surveillance is currently unknown. Upstream and complete case capture is essential in preventing future HIV transmission. Methods: This study integrated Ryan White,…
The contact structure between hosts has a critical influence on disease spread. However, most networkbased models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts. This assumption is known to be at odds with…
This paper presents an impact assessment for the imputation of missing data. The data set used is HIV Seroprevalence data from an antenatal clinic study survey performed in 2001. Data imputation is performed through five methods: Random…
In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), accurate estimates of subnational health and demographic indicators are critical for guiding policy and identifying disparities. Many indicators of interest are proportions of binary outcomes and…
While extensive research has been conducted on high-dimensional data and on regression with left-censored responses, simultaneously addressing these complexities remains challenging, with only a few proposed methods available. In this…
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolves with extraordinary rapidity. However, its evolution is constrained by interactions between mutations in its fitness landscape. Here we show that an Ising model describing these interactions,…
We show that disease transmission models in a spatially heterogeneous environment can have a large number of coexisting endemic equilibria. A general compartmental model is considered to describe the spread of an infectious disease in a…
Reports from the Health Department in the Philippines show that cases of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) are increasing despite management and control efforts by the government. Worldwide, the Philippines has one of the fastest growing…
Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…
In small area estimation, it is sometimes necessary to use model-based methods to produce estimates in areas with little or no data. In official statistics, we often require that some aggregate of small area estimates agree with a national…