Related papers: A Joint Spatial Conditional Auto-Regressive Model …
During an epidemic outbreak, individuals often modify their behavior in response to global prevalence cues, using spatially mediated adaptations such as reduced mobility or transmission range. In this work, we investigate the impact of…
People living with HIV face a high burden of comorbidities, yet early detection is often limited by symptom-driven screening. We evaluate the potential of AI to predict multiple comorbidities from routinely collected Electronic Health…
In this article, we propose a network spread model for HIV epidemics, wherein each individual is represented by a node of the transmission network and the edges are the connections between individuals along which the infection may spread.…
Small area estimation (SAE) entails estimating characteristics of interest for domains, often geographical areas, in which there may be few or no samples available. SAE has a long history and a wide variety of methods have been suggested,…
We propose a stochastic SICA epidemic model for HIV transmission, described by stochastic ordinary differential equations, and discuss its perturbation by environmental white noise. Existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution…
Network models are increasingly used to study infectious disease spread. Exponential Random Graph models have a history in this area, with scalable inference methods now available. An alternative approach uses mechanistic network models.…
Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) is an approach to sampling design and inference in hard-to-reach human populations. Typically, a sampling frame is not available, and population members are difficult to identify or recruit from broader…
Epidemiological investigations of regionally aggregated spatial data often involve detecting spatial health disparities among neighboring regions on a map of disease mortality or incidence rates. Analyzing such data introduces spatial…
Naomi is a spatial evidence synthesis model used to produce district-level HIV epidemic indicators in sub-Saharan Africa. Multiple outcomes of policy interest, including HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy treatment…
Sexual partnerships that overlap in time (concurrent relationships) may play a significant role in the HIV epidemic, but the precise effect is unclear. We derive edge-based compartmental models of disease spread in idealized dynamic…
We consider the basic model of virus dynamics in the modeling of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), in a 2D heterogenous environment. It consists of two ODEs for the non-infected and infected $CD_4^+$ $T$ lymphocytes, $T$ and $I$, and a…
We propose an extension of the classical susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model that incorporates the effects of spatial propagation of an epidemic through a small number of additional compartments. The model is designed to capture…
Strategic test allocation plays a major role in the control of both emerging and existing pandemics (e.g., COVID-19, HIV). Widespread testing supports effective epidemic control by (1) reducing transmission via identifying cases, and (2)…
In this work, we present two defective regression models for the analysis of interval-censored competing risk data in the presence of cured individuals, viz., defective Gompertz and defective inverse Gaussian regression models. The proposed…
It is the main purpose of this paper to introduce a graph-valued stochastic process in order to model the spread of a communicable infectious disease. The major novelty of the SIR model we promote lies in the fact that the social network on…
To combat the HIV/AIDS pandemic effectively, targeted interventions among certain key populations play a critical role. Examples of such key populations include sex workers, people who inject drugs, and men who have sex with men. While…
Molecular HIV Surveillance (MHS) has been described as key to enabling rapid responses to HIV outbreaks. It operates by linking individuals with genetically similar viral sequences, which forms a network. A major limitation of MHS is that…
Prevalent cohort sampling is commonly used to study the natural history of a disease when the disease is rare or it usually takes a long time to observe the failure event. It is known, however, that the collected sample in this situation is…
Random mixing in host populations has been a convenient simplifying assumption in the study of epidemics, but neglects important differences in contact rates within and between population groups. For HIV/AIDS, the assumption of random…
Assessment of circulating CD4 count change over time in HIV-infected subjects on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is a central component of disease monitoring. The increasing number of HIV-infected subjects starting therapy and the limited…