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Future climate change impacts depend on temperatures not only through changes in their means but also through changes in their variability. General circulation models (GCMs) predict changes in both means and variability; however, GCM output…
Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide forecasts of future climate warming using a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO2 emissions models as input, each based on the evolution of four emissions "drivers": population p,…
Traditional general circulation models, or GCMs -- i.e. 3D dynamical models with unresolved terms represented in equations with tunable parameters -- have been a mainstay of climate research for several decades, and some of the pioneering…
General circulation models (GCMs) are the foundation of weather and climate prediction. GCMs are physics-based simulators which combine a numerical solver for large-scale dynamics with tuned representations for small-scale processes such as…
Weather extremes are a major societal and economic hazard, claiming thousands of lives and causing billions of dollars in damage every year. Under climate change, their impact and intensity are expected to worsen significantly.…
The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up to…
Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…
Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…
Climate change is a result of a complex system of interactions of greenhouse gases (GHG), the ocean, land, ice, and clouds. Large climate change models use several computers and solve several equations to predict the future climate. The…
Quantifying the risk of global warming exceeding critical targets such as 2.0 K requires reliable projections of uncertainty as well as best estimates of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST). However, uncertainty bands on GMST projections…
Global climate change is one of main concern of modern society. To estimate this change usually one estimates the global mean temperature. Measuring and calculating the Earth's average temperature are multi-steps complex processes which…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are…
The CMIP global climate models (GCMs) assess that nearly 100% of global surface warming observed between 1850-1900 and 2011-2020 is attributable to anthropogenic drivers like greenhouse gas emissions. These models also generate future…
Climate predictions are only meaningful if the associated uncertainty is reliably estimated. A standard practice for providing climate projections is to use an ensemble of projections. The ensemble mean serves as the projection while the…
Global climate models aim to reproduce physical processes on a global scale and predict quantities such as temperature given some forcing inputs. We consider climate ensembles made of collections of such runs with different initial…
Extreme temperature events have traditionally been detected assuming a unimodal distribution of temperature data. We found that surface temperature data can be described more accurately with a multimodal rather than a unimodal distribution.…
Global Climate Models (GCMs) are crucial for predicting future climate changes by simulating the Earth systems. However, the GCM Outputs exhibit systematic biases due to model uncertainties, parameterization simplifications, and inadequate…
Variations in zonal surface temperature gradients and zonally asymmetric tropical overturning circulations (Walker circulations) are examined over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model…
Global warming arises from 'temperature forcing', a net imbalance between energy fluxes entering and leaving the climate system and arising within it. Humanity introduces temperature forcing through greenhouse gas emissions, agriculture,…