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The parameterization of moist convection contributes to uncertainty in climate modeling and numerical weather prediction. Machine learning (ML) can be used to learn new parameterizations directly from high-resolution model output, but it…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2018-11-30 Paul A. O'Gorman , John G. Dwyer

Moist convection plays a leading role in the dynamics and energy budget of Earth's tropics and influences the sensitivity of Earth's climate to greenhouse gas increases. Because individual convective cells are much smaller than the…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2017-07-26 Anthony D. Del Genio

We compare the performance of a recently proposed empirical climate model based on astronomical harmonics against all available general circulation climate models (GCM) used by the IPCC (2007) to interpret the 20th century global surface…

Geophysics · Physics 2012-01-09 Nicola Scafetta

We propose a non-steady state model of the global temperature change. The model describes Earth's surface temperature dynamics under main climate forcing. The equations were derived from basic physical relationships and detailed assessment…

As IPCC ARs stated, global warming is estimated based on the average from 1850 to 1900 (global average temperature of preindustrialization estimated from relatively sparse observations). Given the impossibility of massive increasing…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-10 Qingxiang Li , Zichen Li , Xuqian Li , Zengyun Hu , Aiguo Dai , Wenjie Dong , Boyin Huang , Zhihong Jiang , Panmao Zhai , Tianjun Zhou , Phil Jones

The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-05-25 Valerio Lucarini , Frank Lunkeit , Francesco Ragone

Due to computational constraints, running global climate models (GCMs) for many years requires a lower spatial grid resolution (${\gtrsim}50$ km) than is optimal for accurately resolving important physical processes. Such processes are…

Ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary tools for investigating climate sensitivity, projecting future climate states, and quantifying uncertainty. GCM ensembles are subject to substantial uncertainty due to model…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-29 Trevor Harris , Ryan Sriver

Global climate warming poses a significant challenge to humanity; it is associated with, e.g., rising sea level and declining Arctic sea ice. Increasing extreme events are also considered to be a result of climate…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-01-23 Jingfang Fan , Jun Meng , Yosef Ashkenazy , Shlomo Havlin , Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

Roy and Bhattacharya (2020) provided Bayesian characterization of infinite series, and their most important application, namely, to the Dirichlet series characterizing the (in)famous Riemann Hypothesis, revealed insights that are not in…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-15 Sucharita Roy , Sourabh Bhattacharya

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of the CMIP6 global circulation models (GCMs) varies from 1.83 {\deg}C to 5.67 {\deg}C. Herein, 38 GCMs are grouped into three ECS classes (low, 1.80-3.00 {\deg}C; medium, 3.01-4.50 {\deg}C; high,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-03-30 Nicola Scafetta

Power spectra of global surface temperature (GST) records reveal major periodicities at about 9.1, 10-11, 19-22 and 59-62 years. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), to be used in the IPCC…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2013-10-29 Nicola Scafetta

A paradigm shift in quantum thermometry is proposed. To date, thermometry has relied on local estimation, which is useful to reduce statistical fluctuations once the temperature is very well known. In order to estimate temperatures in cases…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-11-04 Jesús Rubio , Janet Anders , Luis A. Correa

Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-08-03 Gareth S. Jones , Peter A. Stott , John F. B. Mitchell

The Gaussian Process Convolution Model (GPCM; Tobar et al., 2015a) is a model for signals with complex spectral structure. A significant limitation of the GPCM is that it assumes a rapidly decaying spectrum: it can only model smooth…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-15 Wessel P. Bruinsma , Martin Tegnér , Richard E. Turner

Sites for next-generation telescopes are chosen decades before the first light of a telescope. Site selection is usually based on recent measurements over a period that is too short to account for long-term changes in observing conditions…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-09-28 C. Haslebacher , M. -E. Demory , B. -O. Demory , M. Sarazin , P. L. Vidale

Even if their detection is for now challenging, observation of small terrestrial planets will be easier in a near future thanks to continuous improvements of detection and characterisation instruments. In this quest, climate modeling is a…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2023-12-20 G. Chaverot , E. Bolmont , M. Turbet

Climate models simulate a strong land-ocean contrast in the response of near-surface relative humidity to global warming: relative humidity tends to increase slightly over oceans but decrease substantially over land. Surface energy balance…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-12-21 Michael P. Byrne , Paul A. O'Gorman

Understanding future changes in temperature variability and extremes is an important scientific challenge with societal impacts. Here the responses of daily near-surface temperature distributions to climate warming is explored using an…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-05-12 Joshua A. M. Duffield , Michael P. Byrne

To answer the questions of whether global warming is accelerating and when the 1.5{\deg}C Paris Agreement target will be exceeded, the global mean surface temperature from 1880 to 2025 is first examined using a purely graphical approach and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Erhard Reschenhofer