Related papers: Superspreaders and High Variance Infectious Diseas…
Recently, [8] has proposed that heterogeneity of infectiousness (and susceptibility) across individuals in infectious diseases, plays a major role in affecting the Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT). Such heterogeneity has been observed in…
Compartmental models of epidemics are widely used to forecast the effects of communicable diseases such as COVID-19 and to guide policy. Although it has long been known that such processes take place on social networks, the assumption of…
A central feature of an emerging infectious disease in a pandemic scenario is the spread through geographical scales and the impacts on different locations according to the adopted mitigation protocols. We investigated a stochastic epidemic…
Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…
The COVID-19 pandemic provides new motivation for a classic problem in epidemiology: estimating the empirical rate of transmission during an outbreak (formally, the time-varying reproduction number) from case counts. While standard methods…
Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce a general and flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in the…
Understanding dynamics of an outbreak like that of COVID-19 is important in designing effective control measures. This study aims to develop an agent based model that compares changes in infection progression by manipulating different…
Infectious pathogens often propagate by superspreading, which focusses onward transmission on disproportionately few infected individuals. At the same time, infector-infectee pairs tend to have more similar transmission potentials than…
During infectious disease epidemics, pathogen transmission occurs in host populations made up of interacting subpopulations. Using stochastic simulation and analytical approximations, we examine how outbreak sizes in networked populations…
Susceptibility governs the dynamics of contagion. The classical SIR model is one of the simplest compartmental models of contagion spread, assuming a single shared susceptibility level. However, variation in susceptibility over a population…
The appearance of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in late 2019 has dominated the news in the last few months as it developed into a pandemic. In many mathematics and physics classrooms, instructors are using the time series of the number of…
In light of the continuing emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccines, we create a simulation framework for exploring possible infection trajectories under various scenarios. The situations of primary interest involve the interaction…
When an infectious disease outbreak is of a relatively small size, describing the ancestry of a sample of infected individuals is difficult because most ancestral models assume large population sizes. Given a set of infected individuals, we…
Motivated by epidemics such as COVID-19, we study the spread of a contagious disease when behavior responds to the disease's prevalence. We extend the SIR epidemiological model to include endogenous meeting rates. Individuals benefit from…
We study variants of the SEIR model for interpreting some qualitative features of the statistics of the Covid-19 epidemic in France. Standard SEIR models distinguish essentially two regimes: either the disease is controlled and the number…
We analytically address disease outbreaks in large, random networks with heterogeneous infectivity and susceptibility. The transmissibility $T_{uv}$ (the probability that infection of $u$ causes infection of $v$) depends on the infectivity…
Current epidemics in the biological and social domains are challenging the standard assumptions of mathematical contagion models. Chief among them are the complex patterns of transmission caused by heterogeneous group sizes and infection…
A number of epidemics, including the SARS-CoV-1 epidemic of 2002-2004, have been known to exhibit superspreading, in which a small fraction of infected individuals is responsible for the majority of new infections. The existence of…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
The emergence of infectious disease COVID-19 has challenged and changed the world in an unprecedented manner. The integration of wireless networks with edge computing (namely wireless edge networks) brings opportunities to address this…