Related papers: Superspreaders and High Variance Infectious Diseas…
It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persistent, i.e. constant in time, here we discuss the…
Epidemic spreading is well understood when a disease propagates around a contact graph. In a stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible setting, spectral conditions characterise whether the disease vanishes. However, modelling human…
Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. On short timescales, super-spreading events lead to burstiness and overdispersion, while long-term persistent heterogeneity in…
In individual SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, the count of confirmed cases and deaths follow a Gompertz growth function for locations of very different sizes. This lack of dependence on region size leads us to hypothesize that virus spread depends on…
Diffusion comes anytime and everywhere. If there is a gradient or a potential difference of a quantity a diffusion process happens and this ends if an equilibrium is reached only. The concentration of a species maybe such quantity, or the…
A key scientific challenge during the outbreak of novel infectious diseases is to predict how the course of the epidemic changes under different countermeasures that limit interaction in the population. Most epidemiological models do not…
One clear aspect of behaviour in the COVID-19 pandemic has been people's focus on, and response to, reported or observed infection numbers in their community. We describe a simple model of infectious disease spread in a pandemic situation…
Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. The presented method solves an inverse problem to discover the effectively decisive topology of a heterogeneous network…
Exploring the internal mechanism of information spreading is critical for understanding and controlling the process. Traditional spreading models often assume individuals play the same role in the spreading process. In reality, however,…
Standard epidemiological models for COVID-19 employ variants of compartment (SIR) models at local scales, implicitly assuming spatially uniform local mixing. Here, we examine the effect of employing more geographically detailed diffusion…
In this paper we analyze the effects of commuting and social inequalities for the epidemic development of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). With this aim we consider a SEIRD (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered and dead by disease)…
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has progressed with varying degrees of intensity in individual countries, suggesting it is important to analyse factors that vary between them. We study measures of `population-weighted density', which capture…
Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with…
Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a…
Changes in human behavior are increasingly recognized as a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Although collective activity can be modified through imposed measures to control epidemic progression, spontaneous changes can also arise as…
Epidemic spread in single-host systems strongly depends on the population's contact network. However, little is known regarding the spread of epidemics across networks representing populations of multiple hosts. We explored cross-species…
The goal of this article is to analyze some compartmental models specially designed to model the spread of a disease whose transmission has the same features as COVID-19. The major contributions of this article are: (1) Rigorously find…
We propose a compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease with special focus on the transmissibility of super-spreaders individuals. We compute the basic reproduction number threshold, we study the local stability…
Among the many aspects that characterize the COVID-19 pandemic, two seem particularly challenging to understand: (i) the great geographical differences in the degree of virus contagiousness and lethality which were found in the different…
The COVID-19 epidemic has been spreading around the world for nearly three years, and asymptomatic infections have exacerbated the spread of the epidemic. To evaluate the role of asymptomatic infections in the spread of the epidemic, we…